An intelligence report accessed by Infobae reveals that Nicolás Maduro dismissed an explicit warning from his own Defense Minister regarding the possibility of a military attack from the United States, six days before the U.S. operation that resulted in the capture of Maduro and Cilia Flores.
According to the document, the warning was raised on December 28, 2025 during a high-level meeting held hours before the presidential greeting at the Venezuelan Naval Academy. The meeting was attended by, among others, Cilia Flores, Diosdado Cabello, Jorge Rodríguez Gómez, General in Chief Vladimir Padrino López, and senior military officials.
It was Padrino López who "raised the alarm about the possibility of a military attack by the United States" and recommended suspending Christmas leave, reinforcing military units, and increasing operational activity across the country.
Maduro rejected the warning with surprise. According to the report, he assured those present that intermediaries acting as influence brokers between his government and U.S. officials had guaranteed him that there would be no military actions "against state institutions or against him or his family."
The then-president was convinced that the deployment of Operation Southern Lance was merely a pressure tactic, not a prelude to direct action. This interpretation was supported by Cabello and Jorge Rodríguez, who argued that canceling the Christmas leave "would generate alarm within the Armed Forces and could incite internal uprisings."
The document is conclusive on the matter: "both Maduro and Cilia Flores dismissed the alert as credible and did not believe that Padrino López possessed the necessary strategic capabilities" to assess the threat at that moment of high tension.
While that meeting was taking place in Caracas, parallel diplomatic efforts were unfolding outside of Venezuela. According to a revelation from The Washington Post, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State of the Vatican, urgently summoned the U.S. ambassador to the Holy See, Brian Burch, on the eve of Christmas to propose a negotiated exit for Maduro that considered his asylum in Russia with guarantees from President Vladimir Putin.
On its part, research from the agency Zenit indicated that the Russian proposal included protection for Maduro and his inner circle, the possibility to leave Venezuela, and guarantees to preserve their economic resources abroad.
According to the intelligence report cited by Infobae, the Trump administration rejected that option. The document states that President Donald Trump insisted that Maduro should be transferred to U.S. territory to answer for the charges against him.
The report also states, citing Reuters, that officials from the Trump administration had contact with Diosdado Cabello before and after January 3, 2026. Cabello was reportedly warned not to activate repression mechanisms or mobilize the official party's base or shock groups against the opposition. The document suggests that there were ongoing agreements to ensure the continuity of the chavista power structure following Maduro's departure, which would explain why both Cabello and Jorge Rodríguez dismissed Padrino López's warning without hesitation at that meeting.
On that same January 3, U.S. military forces carried out Operation Absolute Resolution, extracting Maduro and Cilia Flores from Venezuelan territory. The operation resulted in loss of life and significant destruction in Fuerte Tiuna, Caracas.
After the capture, the entire military command was renewed. Padrino López and the head of Ceofanb, Domingo Hernández Lárez, were removed by the acting president Delcy Rodríguez on March 18, 2026. The head of the Aerospace Defense Command, José Luis Tremont Jiménez, was replaced hours after the extraction, and his successor in the position lasted only seven months before being replaced in August of this year.
The Vatican later confirmed that the conversation took place, although it described the disclosure of parts of a confidential dialogue as "disappointing" and stated that what was published did not accurately reflect the content of the conversation.
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