The operations manager of the National Cargo Office of the Electric Union, Lisner Cruz Sánchez, stated this Saturday before the cameras of the Canal Caribe of the official television that "the impacts have decreased significantly," even though the official report indicated a forecast deficit of 2,008 MW for the peak nighttime hours.
The statement is based on a favorable comparison with the situation from a week ago, when the impacts ranged between 1,800 and 1,900 MW and availability was barely around 900 to 950 MW. This Saturday, at dawn, the impact was 1,500 MW and availability was around 1,300 MW.
But this improvement becomes much less significant when one considers the scale of the deficit faced by the National Electric System (SEN).
For Saturday night, a capacity of only 1,322 MW is forecasted against a demand of 3,350 MW, creating a gap of 2,008 MW that is nearly equal to the 2,001 MW recorded on Friday during peak hours.
Additionally, at the time of the report, two generating units were out of service and three others were under maintenance, a situation that further limits the system's capacity to meet demand.
During midday, the situation could be partially alleviated thanks to the contribution of solar parks, which would exceed 700 MW and allow for a reduction in impacts to around 1,400 MW.
Relief, however, has an evident limit within the operation of the SEN, as it disappears with the setting of the sun and once again places the burden of generation on thermal power plants and other available sources.
The most revealing piece of information provided by the official points to another major bottleneck of the crisis. Approximately 1,300 MW of installed capacity in fuel and diesel engine sites, barges in Havana, and generators in Moa and Mariel remain idle due to a lack of imported fuel.
According to Cruz, with that fuel available, the capacity during peak hours could increase from 1,322 to about 1,622 MW, while at noon the system could reach around 2,300 MW and reduce the outages to about 200 MW.
The problem, therefore, is not only how much capacity exists, but how much can actually be put into operation.
The official attributed that paralysis to the U.S. embargo and stated that "behind every blackout is the effect, the energy blockade, the aggressive escalation of the U.S. government, the attempt to suffocate our country."
The official explanation once again places the embargo at the center of the narrative, while the system's own data reveal a combination of issues that extend beyond fuel availability.
Aging thermoelectric plants, chronic maintenance issues, and dependence on imported oil are part of the structural roots of a crisis that the country has been grappling with for decades.
This situation is compounded, according to the provided information, by the reduction in Venezuelan supply following the capture in January of former president Nicolás Maduro, an additional blow to a system that was already reliant on external sources to sustain a significant portion of its generation.
As the only concrete sign of relief for this Saturday, it was expected that unit 6 of the Antonio Maceo thermoelectric plant in Santiago de Cuba would synchronize before the end of the day to provide an additional 60 MW.
Work is also underway in block 5 of the Máximo Gómez thermoelectric plant in Mariel, involving a complex repair on a bearing of the turbine, which is expected to be completed by Sunday or Monday.
At the end of July, the Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, acknowledged that "there is no short-term solution. The road is long".
The day before, maintaining the usual triumphant tone that state media typically adopts for most national issues, journalist Bernardo Espinosa "celebrated" that Havana did not experience blackouts due to a generation deficit, while confirming that electrical issues persisted in other areas of Cuba.
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