Buying a home is becoming complicated again in the United States. The average rate for 30-year mortgages rose this Monday to 7.17%, its highest level since January 2025, when Donald Trump began his second term and the indicator was at 7.26%, according to data from Mortgage News Daily cited by Telemundo.
The increase represents 23 basis points compared to last Tuesday and signifies a significant shift from the 5.99% recorded in February, before the start of the war against Iran, which drove up oil prices and renewed inflationary pressures.
Behind the rise in mortgage costs is primarily the yield of the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond, a key benchmark for these loans. This Monday, it briefly surpassed 5%, reaching nearly 5.014%, before retreating to around 4.95%, according to CNN.
"The yields on Treasury bonds often serve as a benchmark for mortgage pricing," explained Ryan Hayes, director of retail sales at Chase Home Lending, to MarketWatch. The expert attributed part of the pressure to the increased borrowing needs of the federal government and the rising level of debt.
Hayes added that the markets are also reacting to the conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and inflation, as well as the increasing issuance of bonds by major artificial intelligence companies, which are competing to attract investors.
The new increase represents another blow to a real estate market that was already showing signs of weakness, notes Traders Union. Existing home sales fell in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million units, the lowest in over a year, while the national median price of single-family homes reached $434,900 in the second quarter.
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, described the situation as a "stalemate": many buyers have already reached their affordability limit, while sellers are hesitant to further reduce prices.
"This fall we will see a significant slowdown in the real estate market," warned Sturtevant. As he explained, rates close to 7% will particularly hinder those seeking their first home and moderate-income households. At the same time, homeowners who secured cheaper mortgages have little incentive to sell and take on a new loan at much higher rates.
The rise also poses a challenge for Trump, who during the 2024 campaign promised to reduce inflation and ease the cost of living. In January, he stated that mortgage rates had fallen to 5.7% and announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would invest up to $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.
The pressure on bonds is not limited to the United States. The yields on 10-year debt in Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have reached levels not seen in over a decade.
"What we have been communicating to our clients is that this situation will persist for a longer time," stated Luis Alvarado, co-director of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Attention is now focused on the Federal Reserve, which is set to meet on Wednesday to assess its next move regarding interest rates, a decision that could shape the direction of financing costs in the coming months.
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