Millions of beneficiaries of Social Security in the United States will find out in October how much their payments will increase in 2027, but there is one date that is especially important on the calendar: Wednesday, October 14.
That day, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Consumer Price Index for September 2026.
With that information, the three months that the Social Security Administration (SSA) needs to calculate the next cost-of-living adjustment, known as COLA, will be complete.
The official BLS calendar confirms that the release of the September index is scheduled for October 14 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Why is the data from October 14th so important?
The annual increase in Social Security is not calculated using just the year-over-year inflation that typically appears in economic headlines.
The law specifically utilizes the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W.
To establish the COLA, the SSA compares the average of the CPI-W from July, August, and September of the current year with the average of those same three months from the previous year in which an adjustment was made.
The Social Security Administration officially explains this formula and rounds the final result to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
For the increase that will be applied to the benefits corresponding to 2027, the reference will be the average of the third quarter of 2025, which was 317,265 points.
We already know two of the three numbers
At the beginning of October, the CPI-W for September is still pending, but the other two values that are part of the calculation have already been published by the BLS.
July 2026: 327,104 points.
August 2026: 328,481 points.
September 2026: it will be revealed on October 14.
The BLS reported that the August CPI-W increased by 3.5% compared to the same month last year and by 0.4% compared to July, before seasonal adjustments.
However, those monthly percentages are not the COLA by themselves. The SSA needs the complete average for the quarter.
How the increase will be calculated
Once September is known, the calculation can be summarized in three steps.
First: the CPI-W values for July, August, and September 2026 are added together and divided by three.
Second: this average is compared to the 317,265 points corresponding to the third quarter of 2025.
Third: the resulting percentage increase is rounded to the nearest tenth of a percentage point.
That percentage will be the COLA that determines the increase in benefits.
An example to understand the formula
A purely mathematical exercise can be conducted using the data known so far, although it should not be interpreted as a forecast of the final COLA.
Yes, as a mere example, if the CPI-W for September ended up exactly at the same level as August, 328.481 points, the average for July, August, and September would be approximately 328.022.
Compared to the 317,265 points in the third quarter of 2025, the increase would be around 3.4%.
But September may fall above or below that value, so the official figure cannot be known until the BLS publishes the data.
What would an increase mean for each check?
Once the final COLA is announced, the specific increase will depend on the benefits that each person is already receiving.
For example, if hypothetically the COLA ended up being 3.4%, the approximate increases would be:
A benefit of $1,500 would increase by about $51 per month.
A benefit of $2,000 would increase by about $68 per month.
A benefit of $2,500 would increase by about $85 per month.
A benefit of $3,000 would increase by about $102 per month.
These amounts are just examples to illustrate how a percentage of 3.4% would apply and do not represent the official increase for 2027.
The average check for a retiree is about $2,071 in 2026
The SSA calculated that, following the 2.8% COLA applied for 2026, the average monthly benefit for all retired workers is approximately $2,071.
CiberCuba explained in July how Social Security payments are being distributed during 2026 and the current amounts for retirees, disability beneficiaries, and individuals receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI).
The annual increase is applied automatically. Beneficiaries do not need to submit an application to receive the COLA.
Is the 2.7% estimate official?
No.
The Social Security trustees' report for 2026 includes, within its intermediate assumptions, an estimate of a COLA of 2.7% for the effective adjustment in December 2026, payable in January 2027.
The SSA itself presents that figure as an estimate used in the financial projections of the system, not as the final COLA.
The actual percentage will depend exclusively on the formula established by law and the final values of the CPI-W for the third quarter.
Therefore, any figure that circulates before the September data is known should be considered a estimate and not a confirmed increase.
The COLA for 2026 was 2.8%
For this year, the SSA established a COLA of 2.8%.
This result emerged from comparing the CPI-W average for the third quarter of 2025, which is 317.265 points, with the corresponding average used as a reference from the previous year.
The increase raised the estimated average benefit for a retired worker from about $2,015 to approximately $2,071 per month.
When would the new increase start to be charged?
The COLA determined this fall will take effect in December 2026 and will be reflected in the Social Security benefits payable in January 2027.
The Supplemental Security Income (SSI) is also adjusted using the same percentage.
The SSA indicates that it will announce the next COLA in October 2026.
What to watch on October 14th
When the BLS releases its report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the key figure for Social Security will not only be the overall inflation rate that will make headlines.
To calculate the COLA, it will be necessary to specifically look for the unadjusted seasonally CPI-W index for September.
With that number, along with the values from July and August that are already known, the percentage that will serve as the basis for the increase in 2027 can be calculated mathematically.
Until then, no COLA percentage for 2027 should be presented as final.
Related videos:
Filed under: