The writer and analyst Camilo Venegas proposed in a debate on CiberCuba a scenario that many observers consider plausible: that Miguel Díaz-Canel could be politically sacrificed following the death of Raúl Castro and be held responsible for all the failures accumulated by the Cuban regime.
"One thing that could happen is that after Raúl's death, they might take Díaz-Canel down, blaming him for everything that has happened. Since he is an idiot, they will hold him responsible for all that has occurred. He could become the scapegoat for this latest disaster of the revolution, which has been the greatest disaster of all, and they might put another puppet in place to communicate things differently," Venegas stated.
The analyst argues that this move would not result in any real change in the power structure, but merely a change of facade. According to his assessment, the true owners of the system are the military, and their only interest is to preserve the business (of Gaesa) intact.
"As long as the business is running, there won’t be any leaders there, because they have a business that they know could end at the slightest change. So, all those generals are only interested in maintaining the situation as it is, and having a Díaz-Canel who could be someone else tomorrow," he indicated.
This logic also explains why Frank Rodríguez, another panel participant, dismisses the idea that Raúl's death would trigger an internal power struggle. "I don't believe it. I don't believe it," he repeated, arguing that as long as businesses continue to operate, the generals have no incentive to confront each other.
Venegas described the military as "the current entrepreneurs of Cuba," but with a fundamental difference compared to any conventional businessperson: "They don't create those businesses they have; they do not generate a state of welfare, but rather it is a plunder in the most savage way. And that doesn't reach the people." He added that this dynamic is the reason why "the country is paralyzed and only those small fiefdoms exist where they expropriate from the country."
GAESA, the business conglomerate of the Armed Forces, controls between 40% and 70% of the formal Cuban economy, dominating strategic sectors such as tourism, telecommunications, banking, and foreign trade.
Regarding Raúl Castro, Venegas describes him as the silent architect of that structure. "Raúl has shown in his lifetime that he moves away from power and begins to pull the strings, allowing others to operate. Raúl has been the guarantor of the sultanate's permanence in recent years," he stated, citing Jorge de Armas. As an example of that influence, he pointed out that Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz is entirely a creation of Raúl. "He was the second in command to López Calleja and was the envoy in every important position Cuba had."
Raúl Castro, 95 years old, made a public appearance alongside Díaz-Canel on September 6 after months of speculation regarding his health. However, Díaz-Canel himself had acknowledged in April that the former leader is "alive but withdrawn for health reasons" and is "fragile due to his advanced age."
The analyst Jorge de Armas was even more decisive about the real impact of his passing. “The death of Raúl Castro... what specific weight will that death represent for the future of Cuba? Nothing. Absolutely nothing.” For De Armas, Raúl is primarily “a symbol of repression in Cuba, a symbol of absolute power and the greatest symbol of the yoke that Cubans have been bearing.” His disappearance would not change the living conditions for those who have endured that system for decades.
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