Latino voters, who decisively contributed to Donald Trump's victory in 2024, are withdrawing their support en masse, according to a new poll by NBC News and Telemundo released this Sunday, just under a month before the midterm elections on November 3rd.
The survey, conducted between September 21 and 28 with 800 registered Latino voters, places Trump's approval among that electorate at a mere 27%.
The disapproval figures are striking across all evaluated topics: 78% disapprove of their handling of the cost of living, 74% disapprove of their economic management, 69% of their immigration policy, and 68% of their foreign policy.
Even in border security, the area where Trump performs best among Latinos, 58% disapprove of his management compared to 39% who approve.
Two-thirds of those surveyed believe that the administration's deportation policies have gone too far.
In that context, Democrats hold a lead of 24 points in preference for control of Congress among Latino voters: 59% compared to 35% for Republicans.
That gap is double what it was for the Democrats among the same electorate at this point in the 2024 election cycle.
The shift in the economic theme is particularly striking: two years ago, Latinos gave Trump a four-point advantage over Kamala Harris in handling the economy; now they give Democrats a 21-point lead on that same issue.
Almost one-fifth of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 say they do not want a Congress controlled by Republicans: 14% now prefer Democrats and 8% are undecided.
The Republican strategist Micah Roberts, from Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the survey alongside the Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, characterized the change as "impressive" and described Latinos as "the most swingable swing group of all."
"What we can really say with this data is that 2024 was the exception. Trump is a central figure. He has had real consequences in our politics, and without his presence, I believe none of these changes would be evident in the data concerning Latinos," said Roberts.
For his part, Cardona-Arroyo noted that the results "indicate a significant reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and point to challenges ahead for Republican candidates in the midterm elections."
However, the polling agency warned that the Democratic advantage has its limits: "Despite a more favorable environment for the Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven more by opposition to Trump and the economic climate than by support for the Democrats."
The shift has direct consequences on the electoral map. The Republican Party redrew districts in Florida and Texas with Latin majorities based on the results of 2024, betting that this electorate had solidified as its own base, but many of those districts are now shaping up to be competitive.
In Florida, the Cuban-American congresswoman María Elvira Salazar is facing a tight race, with internal polls showing her tied at 45%, and she has released a bilingual advertisement warning that many Hispanics "feel betrayed."
Nevada and South Texas are also among the locations where the Latino vote will be crucial in determining control of Congress on November 3rd.
In Miami-Dade, the deadline to register and be able to vote in those elections is next Monday, with early voting scheduled to start on October 19.
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