The annual inflation rate in Cuba reached 28.44% in September 2026, according to data published by the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), nearing the 30% threshold and solidifying an upward trend that shows no signs of slowing down. Economist Elías Amor warned, in an interview with Tania Costa, that the figure could soar even higher before the year ends.
"The data has just been published by the ONEI: inflation for the month of September has reached almost 30% year-on-year. It stands at 28.5%. It has risen spectacularly again," noted Amor, who has been following the upward trend of prices in Cuba for months.
The economist's forecast is bleak: "My prediction is confirmed: God willing, if nothing happens, the inflation rate in Cuba will be above 35%, between 40 and 45% year-on-year by the end of the year, which is an absolutely unsustainable rate for the Cuban economy."
The acceleration has been consistent throughout 2026: year-on-year inflation started at 12.52% in January, climbed to 20.70% in July, reached 25.19% in August, and ended September at 28.44%.
The main driver of the increase in September was food and non-alcoholic beverages, which accounted for 73.39% of the monthly increase in the price index. This was followed by restaurants and hotels, with a year-on-year inflation rate of 39.11%, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, which recorded the highest sectoral increase: 46.71% year-on-year.
"Food prices are out of control. This month, restaurant and hotel prices have risen again, which is where Cubans buy prepared meals. Wine, beer, alcohol, and tobacco prices have surged again," detailed Amor, who emphasized that these products have a very significant structural weight in the island's consumption.
The comparison with other economies is devastating. "In the United States, in Spain, in Europe, we are alarmed by inflation rates of 4%, while in Cuba, Cubans are paying seven times more for price increases. I don’t know how they can survive," stated the economist.
The answer, according to him, is that food in Cuba has become an unattainable luxury. “The truth is that they cannot live like this. The clearest demonstration of that is right here.”
The impact on income is equally devastating. The minimum wage in Cuba's budgeted sector has been set at 3,210 pesos since July 2026, equivalent to less than five dollars at the informal exchange rate. There are workers who earn barely 4,000 pesos a month on average in some sectors, while independent estimates suggest that a person needs over 96,000 pesos per month just to cover their basic needs.
The salary paradox is striking: the construction sector, which pays nearly 14,500 pesos monthly —the highest in the country— struggles to attract workers. Salaries in the electrical sector exceed an average of 14,000 pesos, and still, the Cuban energy system continues to face one failure after another. "The sectors that pay the least in the Cuban economy are those that depend on the state budget," noted Amor.
It is worth noting that the figures from the ONEI are based on the formal market and may underestimate the actual increase in costs. Independent estimates place inflation for the basic basket at about 70% year-on-year, factoring in the informal market, which most Cubans rely on for their supplies.
“By the end of the year, Cubans will have experienced a price increase in 2026 ranging from 35% to 45%. That is severe. That is the impoverishment. All the savings they have are being consumed by inflation. Savings, pensions, the minimum wage,” concluded Amor, according to infómed Infobae.
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