The Cuban economy faces a new unfavorable forecast for 2026: the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) predicts that the value of the Island's goods exports will decline by 13% this year, in stark contrast to the projected growth in foreign trade for the region as a whole.
The estimate appears in the report “Perspectives on International Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026: the importance of modern service exports and how to promote them,” published last Thursday by the regional commission of the United Nations.
The document not only anticipates a decline in Cuban exports, but also a 10% contraction in the value of merchandise imports, a second indicator that points to difficulties in the island's trade exchanges.
The data, collected in Table I.11 of the full CEPAL report, correspond to projections for the end of 2026 and not to definitive results.
The forecast is particularly significant because it positions Cuba among the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean with one of the largest percentage drops in export value, in a year in which the organization anticipates regional growth of 20%.
While the region as a whole could sell 20% more in goods abroad, Cuba would see a 13% decline. The gap between these two changes amounts to 33 percentage points.
CEPAL breaks down trade variations into three components: prices, volume, and total value. This distinction allows for identifying whether a change fundamentally relates to the quantities of goods traded or to their prices.
In the Cuban case, the agency projects that the volume of exported goods will decrease by 16%, while export prices are expected to increase by 3%.
Therefore, the anticipated 13% reduction in the value of exports is not attributed to a drop in the prices of the sold products, but primarily to a decline in the quantities exported.
The estimate indicates that Cuba would sell fewer goods abroad, although the average prices of those exports would show a slight increase.
This behavior is important for an economy that needs to generate foreign currency revenues to finance international purchases, acquire raw materials, and sustain part of its productive activity.
An important clarification is that the forecast is limited to the trade of goods and, therefore, does not equate to a measurement of all the income the country receives from abroad. Activities such as tourism and other services are recorded in different categories.
Imports also present an equally unfavorable outlook: CEPAL estimates that their value will decrease by 10% in 2026, accompanied by a 12% drop in the volume of goods purchased abroad.
The prices of those imports, on the other hand, would see an increase of 2%.
This means that, according to the projection, Cuba would import a smaller amount of products and would pay slightly higher average prices for them.
The combination deserves attention because imports supply both the consumption needs of the population and the requirements of businesses and public services.
Among the goods that an economy may need to import are food, fuel, medications, equipment, spare parts, and raw materials. However, the CEPAL table does not specify which of these categories would account for the projected contraction in Cuba.
The report shows a simultaneous reduction in the quantities of goods that Cuba sells and purchases in international markets.
The estimates for the Island contrast with the expected performance for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole.
ECLAC projects a 20% increase in the value of regional goods exports, driven by improved prices and an increase in the quantities traded.
The organization also anticipates a 16% increase in the value of regional imports, attributed to both a higher volume of purchases and an increase in their prices.
Regional expansion will not be uniform. Mexico, for example, would see a 26% increase in the value of its exports, while Brazil would grow by 16% and Peru by 30%.
In the Caribbean, there would also be significant differences. The Dominican Republic would experience an export growth of 14%, while Jamaica would grow by 2%, and Cuba would decline by 13%.
According to projections from ECLAC for the 33 countries examined, the only declines in export value that are more pronounced than Cuba's are those of Saint Kitts and Nevis, with a 24% decrease; Dominica, with a 20% decrease; and Panama, with a 14% decrease in the calculation that excludes the Free Zone of Colón.
The contrast highlights that, although the region retains prospects for commercial expansion, several countries are struggling to take advantage of that dynamism.
The report explains that part of the regional growth is due to the rise in international commodity prices and the strengthening of trade relations with Asian markets.
It also highlights the performance of sectors such as mining, oil, and manufacturing, which would significantly contribute to the increase in export value in 2026.
However, Cuba's performance would be different: the projected improvement in export prices would not be enough to offset the significant reduction in traded volumes.
The new forecast on foreign trade emerges in a context of persistent economic difficulties on the Island.
At the end of September, economists from the University of Havana warned about the potential for a new contraction of the Cuban economy in 2026, prolonging the decline in productive activity.
That analysis addressed the overall perspectives of the gross domestic product (GDP), while the new report from CEPAL provides a specific assessment of merchandise trade.
Both indicators measure different aspects of the economy. GDP reflects the production of goods and services, while trade statistics allow for the observation of how international sales and purchases evolve.
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