The Cuban economy is facing a new unfavorable forecast for 2026: the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) predicts that the value of the Island's goods exports will decrease by 13% this year, in stark contrast to the projected expansion of foreign trade for the region as a whole.
The estimate appears in the report “Prospects for International Trade in Latin America and the Caribbean, 2026: the importance of modern services exports and how to promote them,” published last Thursday by the regional commission of the United Nations.
The document not only forecasts a decline in Cuban exports but also a 10% contraction in the value of merchandise imports, a second indicator that points to challenges in the Island's trade exchanges.
The data, collected in Table I.11 of the full CEPAL report, corresponds to projections for the end of 2026 and not to final results.
The forecast is particularly significant because it places Cuba among the countries in Latin America and the Caribbean with one of the largest percentage declines in export value, in a year for which the organization estimates a regional growth of 20%.
While the region as a whole could sell 20% more in goods abroad, Cuba would see a reduction of 13%. The gap between these two variances reaches 33 percentage points.
The CEPAL breaks down trade variations into three components: prices, volume, and total value. This distinction allows for the identification of whether a change is primarily due to the quantities of goods traded or their prices.
In the case of Cuba, the agency forecasts that the volume of exported goods will decrease by 16%, while export prices would increase by 3%.
Therefore, the anticipated 13% reduction in the value of exports cannot be attributed to a decrease in the prices of the sold products, but rather primarily to a decrease in the quantities exported.
The estimate indicates that Cuba would sell fewer goods abroad, although the average prices of those exports would see a slight increase.
This behavior is relevant for an economy that needs to generate foreign exchange income to finance international purchases, acquire raw materials, and sustain part of its productive activities.
An important clarification is that the forecast is limited to the trade of goods and, therefore, does not account for all the income the country receives from abroad. Activities such as tourism and other services are recorded in separate categories.
Imports also show an equally unfavorable outlook: the CEPAL estimates that their value will decrease by 10% in 2026, accompanied by a 12% drop in the volume of goods purchased abroad.
The prices of those imports, on the other hand, would see an increase of 2%.
This means that, according to the projection, Cuba would import a smaller quantity of products and pay slightly higher average prices for them.
The combination deserves attention because imports help meet both the consumption needs of the population and the requirements of businesses and public services.
Among the goods that an economy may need to import are food, fuels, medicines, equipment, spare parts, and raw materials. However, the CEPAL table does not specify which of these categories would account for the anticipated contraction in Cuba.
The report shows a simultaneous perspective of reduction in the quantities of goods that Cuba sells and buys in international markets.
The estimates for the Island contrast with the expected performance for Latin America and the Caribbean as a whole.
ECLAC projects a 20% increase in the value of regional goods exports, driven by an improvement in prices and a rise in the quantities traded.
The organization also forecasts a 16% increase in the value of regional imports, driven by both a higher volume of purchases and an increase in prices.
Regional expansion will not be uniform. Mexico, for example, would see a 26% increase in the value of its exports, while Brazil would grow by 16% and Peru by 30%.
In the Caribbean, there would also be significant differences. The Dominican Republic would experience an export growth of 14%, while Jamaica would see an increase of 2%, and Cuba would decline by 13%.
According to the projections from CEPAL for the 33 countries examined, the only declines in exported value more pronounced than Cuba's would correspond to Saint Kitts and Nevis, with a 24% drop; Dominica, with a 20% decline; and Panama, with a 14% decrease in the calculation that excludes the Colón Free Zone.
The contrast highlights that, although the region maintains prospects for commercial expansion, several countries are facing difficulties in taking advantage of that dynamism.
The report explains that part of the regional growth is due to the rise in international commodity prices and the strengthening of trade relations with Asian markets.
It also highlights the performance of sectors such as mining, oil, and manufacturing, which would significantly contribute to the increase in export value in 2026.
However, Cuba's performance would be different: the projected improvement in export prices would not be sufficient to offset the significant reduction in traded volumes.
The new forecast on foreign trade comes amid ongoing economic challenges on the Island.
At the end of September, economists from the University of Havana warned about the possibility of a new contraction of the Cuban economy in 2026, prolonging the decline in productive activity.
That analysis covered the general outlook of the gross domestic product (GDP), while the new CEPAL report provides a specific assessment of merchandise trade.
Both indicators measure different aspects of the economy. GDP reflects the production of goods and services, while trade statistics allow us to observe how international sales and purchases evolve.
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