The Center for Cuban Economic Studies (CEEC) at the University of Havana published its fifth edition of the Report on the Cuban Economy this Friday, covering the first half of 2026, with a conclusion that leaves no room for hope: without a profound shift and external financing, Cuban growth "would once again fall below the official target of 1%", which in practice amounts to another decline in GDP.
The report also confirms that the Cuban economy contracted by about 5% in 2025, marking its third consecutive year in the red, and that the accumulated contraction between 2020 and 2025 now exceeds 15% of GDP, solidifying one of the longest-lasting structural crises in the island's recent history.
The picture described by economists at the CEEC is one of "multiple crises, macroeconomic imbalances, and high inflation," exacerbated by a loss of internal responsiveness, mass emigration, and an increasing reliance on external financing.
"The path to development is practically postponed," states the document, which adds among the determining factors the deficit in electricity generation —which fell by 13.7% year-on-year in 2025— and the lack of productive reforms that have been pending for years.
The characteristic that distinguishes the first semester of 2026 from previous crises is, according to the CEEC, the emergence of a system of US sanctions that simultaneously affected Cuban energy, trade, tourism, investment, and finance.
The capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, eliminated the main supply of subsidized oil to Cuba. Weeks later, the Trump administration progressively expanded sanctions through Executive Order 14380, causing energy imports to plummet by between 80% and 90%.
The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) projects that Cuba will experience the worst economic contraction in the entire region in 2026, with a GDP decline of 10.3%, a figure that worsened from the estimate of -6.5% published in April.
In light of this scenario, the regime approved a package of 176 economic measures in 23 thematic areas, which include the authorization of private banking, private exchange houses, opening up to foreign direct investment in the non-state sector, and the removal of the 100-worker limit for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (mipymes).
The CEEC acknowledges that these measures indicate a shift towards a model that better combines the market with state participation, but warns that "the main risk" lies in "a gap between its design and implementation."
The private sector was already contributing about 29% of the state's tax revenues in 2025, becoming a key buffer for supply, although with prices unattainable for most Cubans.
The official inflation rate rose from the 14.07% recorded in 2025 to 20.70% year-over-year in July 2026, while unofficial estimates place the increase in the basic basket at around 70%.
The report also highlights an unprecedented fact: for the first time in many years, the Minister of Economy did not appear before the National Assembly of People's Power during its ordinary session in July, which researchers interpret as a sign of the regime's increasing secrecy in light of the magnitude of the crisis.
The economist Elías Amor has warned that Cuba would need to grow by 5% of GDP over a full decade to modernize its infrastructure, a goal he himself labels as an "economic miracle" in light of the current reality.
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