The popularity of President Donald Trump hit rock bottom two weeks before the midterm elections: a joint survey by Ipsos, The Washington Post, and ABC News revealed that only 33% of American adults approve of his administration, the lowest level recorded by that series, even below the 38% he registered after the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.
The survey, conducted between October 9 and 13 with 2,545 adults and a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, shows that 66% disapprove of Trump's administration and 52% do so strongly, according to a report by EFE.
This figure represents a four-point decrease compared to last July and a 12-point drop from February 2025, when the president recorded a 45% approval rating at the beginning of his second term.
The Washington Post noted that this is "a lower level than at any other time during his first term".
A second survey, published this Tuesday by Reuters and Ipsos, placed Trump's approval even lower, at 31%, which is also a historical low for that series.
The main trigger for the collapse is the rising cost of living, exacerbated by the impact of the war with Iran on fuel prices.
The conflict, which began on February 28, 2026, drove the price of gasoline from $2.98 per gallon to $4.48 by September, an increase of over 50%.
The result: 71% of respondents consider that the price of gasoline is "unaffordable", compared to 28% who felt that way in February, before the conflict.
Moody's Analytics estimated that the war and its energy effects represent an additional cost of approximately $2,000 per American household.
This is added to the fact that the year-on-year inflation rose to 3.7% in September, mainly driven by energy, and that 72% of those surveyed believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction, five points higher than in April.
In this context, Trump attempted to ease pressure on fuel prices through an energy agreement with Russia: on October 9, he announced the importation of up to 4.8 million tons of Russian diesel, and days later suspended by executive order the sanctions that Congress had approved against Moscow with broad bipartisan support.
The measure has generated criticism from legislators of both parties. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described it as a "60-day pause" to assess its impact on international markets, but former President Mike Pence publicly condemned it, and Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky warned that it would be a "historic mistake".
In the lead-up to the elections on November 3, 2026, in which the Republican Party is vying for control of both chambers of Congress, Democrats have an eight-point lead over Republicans among likely voters for the House of Representatives: 52% to 44%.
This advantage contrasts with the mere three points that separated both parties last July, reflecting a sustained Democratic advance in recent weeks.
Several Republican congressmen are facing challenges in districts that have historically been conservative strongholds, and Trump has ramped up his schedule of campaign events nationwide in an attempt to maintain the majority.
Cook Political Report forecasts a Democratic gain of between five and 15 seats in the House, enough for the party to regain the majority, given that Republicans currently control that chamber with only 218 seats compared to 214 Democrats.
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