The south of Florida is facing one of the most complex weather episodes of autumn: the combination of repeated rainfall, strong winds, and the peak of the king tides poses a significant coastal flooding threat in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, and the Keys from Sunday, October 25 to Tuesday, October 27, according to the National Weather Service.
This Saturday, the rains will be isolated and the risk is moderate, but conditions will deteriorate starting on Sunday.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Miami activated a Coastal Flood Watch effective from 2:00 a.m. on Sunday until 8:00 p.m. on Monday, while the coastal flood warning for Broward and Miami-Dade remains in effect until early Sunday morning with moderate flooding expected during each high tide.
The most dangerous period will be on Monday and Tuesday, when the most intense rain bands coincide with the astronomical peak of the spring tides. The highest risk of coastal flooding is expected on Monday and Tuesday, due to the combination of strong winds and high tides in areas prone to flooding.
Regarding the accumulated rainfall, the NWS is considering several scenarios. The most favorable predicts between one and two inches, while the worst forecasts 5-7 inches in 48 hours, with isolated areas potentially nearing double that amount.
The winds are worsening the situation. On Sunday, gusts of up to 28 mph are expected, but on Monday they could reach between 34 and 38 mph. The overall forecast for the Sunday-Tuesday period indicates sustained winds of 25-30 mph with gusts exceeding 40 mph, enough to push additional water from the ocean towards the coast and elevate levels beyond what the astronomical tide would produce on its own.
The real tide cycle runs from October 24 to 30, with the annual astronomical peak on the east coast occurring on Tuesday, the 27th. In the Keys, the highest levels are expected on the 28th and 30th. NBC Miami noted that "water levels this weekend could be the highest of the season so far."
The episode arrives with the ground already saturated: just a week ago, Broward and Palm Beach recorded between 3.5 and 5.5 inches of rain with flash flood warnings. When sea levels remain elevated, rainwater has a harder time draining, which can lead to simultaneous flooding from both marine water and rain accumulation.
The most vulnerable areas are those located east of I-95: Miami Beach, Brickell, Downtown Miami, Hialeah, Sweetwater, Doral, Medley, Tamiami, Kendall, and Coral Gables.
On Monday, the return to work and schools could be affected by temporary road closures in those areas. At the beaches, the NWS maintains a high risk of rip currents until 8:00 p.m. on Monday, and Palm Beach has a warning for dangerous surf with waves of 5-7 feet.
For those residing in Miami, authorities recommend parking vehicles on elevated ground before high tide, avoiding driving through flooded streets even if the water seems shallow— as it may conceal potholes, cables, or currents— and not bypassing barricades under any circumstances.
If the car comes into contact with saltwater, it's advisable to rinse it with fresh water and take it for a check-up. The coastal flood advisory issued a few days ago had already warned about these precautions.
There are no developing tropical systems in the Atlantic over the next seven days; this episode is not a tropical storm, but rather the confluence of a very rainy atmospheric pattern with the annual peak of astronomical tides, a combination that the NWS deems sufficient to generate significant flooding conditions throughout the region.
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