The Cuban transition cannot be improvised on the day the regime ends. It must start to be thought about now, because the collapse of a political system does not automatically ensure the birth of a democracy.
While CiberCuba, through the spaces led by Tania Costa, promotes the debate on the possible paths of a transition in Cuba, I find it necessary to offer another perspective: to organize the major challenges of the process and highlight the principles that should guide decisions. It is not enough to envision the end of a dictatorship; we must prepare the conditions for the country to live without it.
History provides ample warnings. Political changes can open the doors to freedom, but they can also allow the survival of old elites, produce new forms of authoritarianism, or lead to institutional crises. Cuba needs to learn from these experiences without mechanically copying any model.
1. First, avoid the power vacuum
The initial decisions must ensure the continuity of essential services, public safety, the supply of food and medicine, the operation of hospitals, electricity, and communications. A provisional government will need to have effective authority, but also clear limits, defined responsibilities, and a temporary mandate. The emergency cannot become an excuse to perpetuate unchecked power.
2. Then, restore the rule of law
No transition will be genuine if it maintains the political monopoly, the subordination of the courts, or the persecution of those who think differently. Guarantees will be needed for freedoms of expression, association, assembly, and the press; judicial independence and an impartial electoral authority. Legality cannot depend on the will of a ruler, but rather on public norms applicable to all.
3. Prepare truly free elections
It is not about calling elections quickly to create a façade of democracy. There must first be political pluralism, legal parties, freedom of campaigning, independent media, guarantees for candidates, and electoral oversight. The goal will be for Cubans to choose from real alternatives and for no party, armed institution, or economic group to appropriate the state.
4. Transform the instruments of repression
The Armed Forces, the police, and security agencies must be subordinated to civilian authority and subject to the law. It would not be wise to hastily dismantle the entire security structure, but neither should we allow the regime's repressive mechanisms to survive intact under new names. Professionalism, accountability, and political neutrality will be essential.
5. Delivering justice without turning it into revenge
Human rights violations, political persecution, and abuses of power must be investigated. Victims deserve truth, acknowledgment, and reparations; those responsible, where appropriate, must answer individually before independent courts. Neither indiscriminate amnesty nor collective retaliation provides a morally acceptable solution. Reconciliation can only be built on truth, justice, and procedural guarantees.
6. Reviving the economy without sacrificing the most vulnerable
Reconstruction will require re-establishing production, controlling inflation, recovering the currency and the financial system, attracting investments, and creating opportunities for private entrepreneurship. It will also be necessary to examine confiscations, property claims, and military control over economic sectors. Restitutions or compensations must be resolved through transparent processes, without further arbitrary actions. No reform will be sustainable if its costs fall solely on those who have the least.
7. Rebuilding society, education, and historical memory
Decades of ideological control have weakened public trust and the autonomy of numerous institutions. Restoring them will require academic freedom, independent unions, civil associations, plural universities, and media free from state censorship. The teaching of history must rely on documents, verifiable sources, and critical debate. It is not about replacing one form of propaganda with another, but rather about restoring citizens' right to know, research, and assess the past.
8. Incorporate the exile without establishing new privileges
Cubans living outside the island possess knowledge, resources, and experiences that can contribute to national reconstruction. There must be pathways for voluntary return, professional recognition, investment, and civic participation. However, the new Cuba cannot be divided between those who remained and those who emigrated, nor between former privileged individuals and new beneficiaries. Equality before the law must be the common principle.
9. Establish a verifiable schedule
The transition requires stages, public objectives, and oversight mechanisms. Fundamental freedoms and addressing the social emergency must be tackled from the outset; constitutional, judicial, and economic reforms will need preparation and debate. The provisional authority must be accountable and transfer power according to a reasonable timetable, without perpetuating itself by claiming that the country is not yet ready for democracy.
10. Ensure that the change is irreversible
The true measure of success will not be who occupies the presidency or which party wins the first elections. It will be the existence of institutions capable of preventing any leader from concentrating all powers again. The separation of powers, constitutional checks, political alternation, and the protection of minorities must be established in rules that no ruler can modify to suit their convenience.
A conclusion that allows for no improvisation
Cuba does not need to replace one man with another, one slogan with another, or one elite with another. It needs to rebuild the Republic on foundations that enable citizens to stop being subjects and become holders of rights.
We do not know when a transition will begin or what circumstances will make it possible. However, we can prepare ourselves intellectually for its challenges. Historical experience teaches us that good intentions do not replace institutions, that stability without freedom can prolong oppression, and that justice without guarantees can degenerate into vengeance.
The task will be difficult. There will be conflicting interests, social urgencies, open wounds, and unpopular decisions. Precisely for this reason, a path is needed that allows for distinguishing priorities from improvisations and principles from conveniences.
The transition will not have succeeded when the symbols of the old regime disappear, but rather when no power can place itself above the law and no Cuban has to renounce their freedom to live in their country.
That should be the compass of a democratic Cuba: freedom with responsibility, justice without vengeance, reconciliation without impunity, and a Republic without owners.
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Opinion article: Las declaraciones y opiniones expresadas en este artículo son de exclusiva responsabilidad de su autor y no representan necesariamente el punto de vista de CiberCuba.