Michael McFaul, a professor of Political Science at Stanford University and one of the world's most recognized scholars in the study of democratic transitions, issued a direct critique of Secretary of State Marco Rubio this Saturday.
The former U.S. ambassador to Russia during the Obama administration warned the current Secretary of State that his support for "autocrats and oligarchs" in Venezuela, instead of backing democracy, should make those who hope he is committed to the democratization of Cuba think twice.
Your decision to support autocrats and oligarchs in Venezuela instead of democracy should give anyone pause who expects you to be committed to democracy in Cuba, wrote McFaul on the social network X.
There is no better way to inspire Cuban democrats than to support democracy in Venezuela, added the academic, who is often very critical of the foreign policy of the Trump administration.
The message was a direct response to the call that Rubio had posted the day before on his official account, urging Cubans seeking to "create positive change" on the island to seize the moment through a "discreet partnership with the CIA".
That call from Rubio was part of a coordinated campaign with the intelligence agency itself: the CIA published a message in Spanish on its social media that was almost identical to that of the Secretary of State, accompanied by a nearly two-minute video, and also released an operational guide on Instagram with instructions on how to contact the agency discreetly.
The Cuban regime responded with mockery: the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs ridiculed the call, and other officials accused the Trump administration of acting like a "terrorist and criminal state".
McFaul's criticism highlights an apparent underlying contradiction in Rubio's foreign policy: while he demands democratization in Cuba, in Venezuela Washington seems to have opted for stabilization and business interests rather than a genuine political transition.
After the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, chavismo remains in power under the acting president Delcy Rodríguez. Rubio designed for Venezuela a three-phase plan: stabilization, economic recovery, and reconciliation, followed by a political transition towards legitimate elections.
However, as this week comes to a close, there is no defined election date, chavismo retains its security and intelligence structures intact, and María Corina Machado —Nobel Peace Prize 2025— remains in exile in Panama without being able to return to the country after at least seven failed attempts.
The concern is not new. Former U.S. ambassador James Story warned in May that each day without progress towards democracy diminishes Washington's influence and strengthens chavismo. In October, the United Nations stated that, nearly nine months after Maduro's capture, the regime's repressive apparatus remained intact.
McFaul, an expert in comparative autocracies and regime changes in post-socialist countries, has been warning for years about the risks of prioritizing stability over democracy in transitional contexts.
His experience—which includes having directed the White House's policy towards Russia and Eastern Europe under the Obama administration—gives him a unique authority to assess whether Washington's policies align with their stated objectives.
Jorge Rodríguez, a key figure of chavismo, declared that the presidential elections would take place within the "constitutional times," a formula that analysts interpret as a possible continuation of the interim government until 2030, consolidating the regime under a new facade and frustrating democratic hopes both in Venezuela and, by a domino effect, in Cuba.
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