The report from the Electric Union (UNE) for October 31, released by the Electric Union (UNE), predicts an impact of 1,810 MW during peak demand hours this Saturday, with only 1,020 MW available compared to an expected demand of 2,800 MW and an estimated deficit of 1,780 MW.
The data contrasts with the closing figures from Friday the 30th, when the maximum impact due to a generation capacity deficit reached 2,039 MW at 7:20 PM, and the service was interrupted due to deficits for the entire 24 hours of that day, with the impact continuing throughout the early morning hours.
At 6:00 am this Saturday, the National Electroenergetic System (SEN) recorded 900 MW of availability against a demand of 2,343 MW, with 1,437 MW affected at that moment.
For the half-hour schedule, UNE estimates an impact of 1,550 MW. All these figures are forecasts that depend on the predicted conditions being maintained, not confirmed results.
The relative improvement compared to Friday—180 MW less of expected impact and 180 MW more of availability—does not change the crisis: the available generation for the peak would barely cover 36% of the expected maximum demand.
One factor that affects the forecast is the synchronization of the CTE Antonio Guiteras to the SEN at 1:23 AM this Saturday. However, the report only anticipates its "completion" with an additional 40 MW at peak, indicating that the plant is in a process of gradual loading, not in full operation.
La Guiteras, the largest thermoelectric power plant in the country with a nominal capacity of 316 MW located in Matanzas, experienced its fifth outage in October on the 27th, when it went offline due to low vacuum in the condenser. A subsequent inspection revealed three simultaneous cracks in the boiler: in the low-temperature superheater, the header of the feedwater line, and the high-temperature reheater.
The report also anticipates the entry of unit 6 from the Nuevitas CTE with 80 MW for peak demand. Additionally, it reports that four units from Renté, Nuevitas, and Santa Cruz are under maintenance. Four blocks from Santa Cruz, Felton, Nuevitas, and Renté are listed as out of service.
The limitations in thermal generation amount to 668 MW.
On Friday, the photovoltaic solar parks produced 4,304 MWh, with a maximum power output of 544 MW during peak hours, figures that do not offset the structural generation deficit.
The electrical situation has been particularly serious this month. The VC100 circuit of Arroyo Naranjo, in Havana, had accumulated over 64 hours of continuous outages as of October 30, and the Electric Company of Cienfuegos admitted that power cut times ranged from 70 to 89 hours, with no possibility of meeting the planned rotations.
The worst record of the month was on October 2, with 2,130 MW affected, and power outages due to generation deficits have lasted for over 24 hours in multiple areas.
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