Florida celebrates its midterm elections this Tuesday, with the Latino vote being a potentially decisive factor: according to the Latino Policy and Politics Institute at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the state has nearly 3.3 million potential Latino voters, more than one-fifth of the eligible voting population, as reported by the live updates from Telemundo 51.
Florida arrives at the polls with 13.67 million registered voters in total, of which approximately 2.5 million are Hispanic. Latinos make up about 29% of the state population —around 6.7 million residents— according to 2024 data from the Census Bureau.
However, this electoral mass does not act as a uniform block. According to EFE, "the Latino community, made up of voters of Cuban, Puerto Rican, Venezuelan, Colombian, Mexican, and Central American origin, among others, does not constitute a homogeneous electoral block," with preferences that vary significantly based on national origin.
The most closely watched contest is the gubernatorial race, which pits the Republican Byron Donalds —backed by Trump and with state senator Bryan Ávila, the son of Cuban immigrants, as the candidate for lieutenant governor— against the Democrat David Jolly, a former Republican congressman turned Democrat.
A survey by N+Univision/YouGov published in October showed Jolly with 48% compared to Donalds' 43% among Latinos in Florida overall, but the trend reverses among Cuban Americans: Donalds leads with 51% to 42%.
The gap is even more pronounced according to the FIU Cuba Poll 2026: among Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade, Donalds reaches 60% compared to Jolly's 24%, although 39% of the total respondents remained undecided before the election day. Puerto Ricans, on the other hand, favor Jolly by 51% to 35%, and South American voters support him by 47% to 44%.
In District 27, the Cuban-American Republican María Elvira Salazar is seeking a fourth consecutive term against Democrat Eliott Rodríguez, a Cuban-American journalist and former CBS Miami presenter. A survey by RedBox Research placed her at 49.1% compared to 46.4%, within the margin of error, in a district where the Hispanic population is around 73.5%.
In District 28, the Republican congressman Carlos Giménez —born in Havana— is seeking reelection with the support of Trump. While casting his vote this Tuesday, Giménez was straightforward: "I am confident in my reelection," and he reiterated his aim to free Cuba from its current regime.
The Venezuelan vote adds another variable. Cities like Doral, where Venezuelans make up nearly 40% of the population and one third of the registered voters, are showing signs of discontent with the Trump administration following the removal of Temporary Protected Status for about 600,000 Venezuelans in 2025, according to an analysis by CBS News.
Polling places close at 7 p.m., and about 6,000 employees are involved in the electoral process in Miami-Dade, where more than 300,000 early votes had already been cast by October 27, representing 22.92% of the county's active registered voters.
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