The overwhelming Democratic victory in the midterm elections in the United States has generated a mix of cautious hope and uncertainty among Cubans regarding what changes may occur in the relations between Washington and Havana, according to reactions gathered by EFE.
The Democratic Party regained control of the Senate with 54 seats to the Republicans' 44 (with 2 races still undecided, showing a slight Democratic lead in Mississippi and Alaska), and projected between 231 and 258 seats in the House of Representatives. The new Congress will take office on January 3, 2027, marking the beginning of a two-year period during which the Democrats will be able to halt part of President Donald Trump's agenda.
Most Cubans were more focused on surviving the severe economic and energy crisis on the island than on closely following the elections. Those who were aware of the outcome expressed opinions ranging from skepticism to moderate hope.
Daniel Escobar, a 60-year-old from Havana, summarized the feelings of many with a straightforward phrase: “They are all the same,” although he quickly clarified that “the Democrats are a little bit better.” His underlying message was one of resilience: “We do not lose faith that there needs to be a change for the benefit of all Cubans. Something favorable has to happen for Cuba because, the truth is, Cuba is going through very difficult times.”
Others preferred to look inward. A young man from Havana, who requested to remain anonymous, was firm: "Right now, our biggest problems are internal, and if we don't solve these internal issues, we can't blame what's happening in the United States."
The Havana native Yoel Machado considered that a Democratic Congress "would reduce Donald Trump's ability to do certain things," but he cautioned that it could also "be a tense moment where some kind of desperate maneuver might arise."
Analysts agree that legislative change alone does not guarantee a shift in Washington's policy towards Havana. The Cuban historian Ariel Dacal acknowledged that the Democratic victory opens "a sense of hope that something will change," but cautioned that this is not enough "to sustain and qualify the hope for a shift in the tense relations." His advice was prudent: "While enjoying the momentary respite, it remains to be seen what course it will take, without expecting more than is warranted."
Charles Kupchan, a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University, noted at a forum that Cuba could become the next target of the Republican president: "If I had to bet on what Trump's next objective will be, I would say it’s Cuba." Cuban historian Fabio Fernández Batista agreed that Trump might seek to solidify his legacy, although he also envisioned the possibility that "he might show his more negotiable side" and reach some agreement with Havana. "A waiting period and uncertainty opens up," he summarized.
Michael J. Bustamante, associate professor of History at the University of Miami, recalled on the social network X that Democrats "have a long list of battles to fight, abuses to investigate, and priorities to push," and pointed out that the Cuban regime's stance of resistance may benefit its leaders, "but offers little to the Cuban people."
The regime, for its part, had already dismissed any hopes for change before the elections: the chargé d'affaires of the Cuban embassy in Washington, Lianys Torres Rivera, stated to AFP that "we do not have any illusions about that," and acknowledged that communication channels with the State Department "have not progressed."
The chancellor Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla had been even more emphatic in October, stating to the New York Times that Havana would wait "as long as necessary" for U.S. policy to change: "It has to happen. It is inevitable."
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