The National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States issued its Advisory 1 on Sunday for the possible Tropical Cyclone 18 of the season, which is expected to strengthen as it moves through the western Caribbean.
The agency issued a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm watch for Jamaica.
According to official information, the disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical storm on Monday and pass near Jamaica that night and on Tuesday.
The forecast predicts that it will become a hurricane by Tuesday night, with a risk of dangerous impacts from hurricane-force winds and storm surges in the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba.
"The system will bring heavy rain areas across portions of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the southern and western parts of Cuba, until midweek. Flooding may occur in parts of Jamaica and Cuba, with possible landslides," the report details.
"The heavy rains could then extend into northern Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States from the middle to the end of the week."
The NHC indicates that residents in the Florida Keys should closely monitor this system, as tropical storm watches may be necessary for that area tonight or on Monday.
According to meteorologist and hurricane specialist John Morales from NBC6, who shared the information on his Twitter account, if it becomes a hurricane, it will be named Rafael and is expected to reach Cuba on Wednesday.
For its part, the Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) also alerted about the area of low pressure in the southern part of the western Caribbean Sea, which has shown improved organization, increasing the likelihood of the formation of a tropical cyclonic system in the next 12 to 24 hours.
"Depending on its evolution and future path, as it approaches national territory, the areas of showers, rain, and thunderstorms in the central and western regions will increase," he warned on his Facebook wall.
The Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisanchez shared on Facebook the various specialized models for the trajectory and intensity of the phenomenon.
Ruisanchez explained that although the trajectory models largely agree on a movement towards the western end of Cuba, this may vary as there is no well-defined center, so areas from central to western Cuba should remain on high alert.
"Regarding intensity, the models over a period of more than 48 hours show everything from a tropical storm to a strong hurricane," he said.
"We will continue to provide updates; in the coming hours, we should have a tropical cyclone," he added.
A trough continues to cause rainfall in eastern Cuba.
In its latest report, INSMET revealed that the eastern region will continue to experience overcast skies and rain due to the influence of a trough extending from the Atlantic Ocean.
The agency alerted on Sunday morning about the presence of this trough in the lower levels of the troposphere over the Dominican Republic, which has caused showers and thunderstorms in eastern Cuba.
The Center reported that the province most affected by the rainfall has been Guantánamo, with accumulations of 57.8 millimeters in Jamal and 63.7 millimeters in Palenque de Yateras, although precipitation was also reported in Camagüey during the early hours of the morning.
This system will continue to bring rain to the northern coast and Guantánamo throughout Sunday, with chances of rain also in the northern areas of Holguín and Las Tunas.
Due to the intense rains affecting eastern Cuba, the National Civil Defense Headquarters decided to implement the Informative Phase across the entire region on Saturday.
The phase came into effect at 10:00 AM for the provinces of Guantánamo, Santiago de Cuba, Holguín, Granma, and Las Tunas.
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