Meteorologist José Rubiera warned in his latest report on his YouTube channel that western Cuba and central and southern Florida should pay close attention to the development and evolution of Tropical Storm Sara once it forms, and he explained the reasons.
Rubiera detailed that, although the current movement of the phenomenon is clearly towards the west, it is expected that after remaining relatively stationary due to a lack of atmospheric conditions, the phenomenon could begin a turn to the northeast next week as it interacts with an anticipated trough.
"I warn you that this is going to be a tropical system that will require patience," the retired meteorologist began, in the didactic and engaging manner that has earned him the affection and admiration of his followers over the decades.
Rubiera, who made his report before Tropical Depression 19 had formed, explained that tropical systems do not move by themselves, but rather are driven by steering currents, which are created by high-pressure systems and troughs.
"The airflow is what guides the tropical cyclone, as if it were a balloon, in one direction or another. And if there isn't a sufficiently strong airflow, it stagnates and remains stationary, which is what is expected to happen in this case," he explained.
It was indicated that the storm -or hurricane- Sara could remain stationary for several days, waiting for a trough until the beginning of the week, and that it could pull the phenomenon moving rapidly toward the northeast.
"Two or three days stationary, not moving, waiting for the trough to arrive, and when the trough comes, 'it has to capture it,' and then it will accelerate it towards the northeast," stated Rubiera, who demonstrated how many models agree on the imminent evolution of the phenomenon, but then those models become more diffuse regarding the following days.
"It can have many variants because it depends on the chronological time. The result of this is seen in the uncertainty of the models," he said while showing a handful of trajectories, some of which pose potential danger to the western part of Cuba (particularly to Pinar del Río) and to Florida (especially in the central part of the state).
"It's simply a matter of time, chronological time, and that's why we see all these variations here, ranging from Yucatán to the western part of Cuba and Florida," he added.
"For this reason, I tell you that the areas that require closer monitoring of the development and evolution of this tropical system named Sara... a hurricane that could be severe, are northern Honduras, Yucatán, Belize, northern Guatemala, western Cuba, and central and southern Florida," he concluded.
It was in the early hours of today that Tropical Depression 19 of the current hurricane season formed, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States.
It is expected that today the meteorological phenomenon will develop into Tropical Storm Sara and continue to strengthen if it stays over the water, which would increase the risk in potentially affected areas, primarily Honduras and Nicaragua, along with other countries in Central America.
At 7:00 a.m., the center of the depression was located approximately 400 km east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and about 150 km northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios, on the border between Nicaragua and Honduras.
The phenomenon is currently moving west at 24 km/h (15 mph) and is maintaining maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h (35 mph).
In Tropical Cyclone Advisory No. 1, published by the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) of Cuba, the organization specified that “given its current position, possible evolution, and the time of year, the Forecast Center is closely monitoring its trajectory over the coming days.”
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