The informal currency market in Cuba continues to absorb the impact of the new sanctions policy imposed by the United States and is reacting to the paralysis of the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel, unable to take control of the country’s economy and monetary policy.
This Wednesday, the US dollar rose to 385 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the freely convertible currency (MLC) fell to 250 CUP, marking a new recent low. The euro remains at 425 CUP, after weeks of rising that led it to reach its historical record in June.
Informal exchange rate in Cuba Wednesday, July 2, 2025 - 05:08
- Exchange rate of the dollar (USD) to Cuban pesos CUP: 385 CUP
- Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 425 CUP
- Exchange rate from (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 250 CUP
Compared to Tuesday's session, the dollar saw an increase of three pesos, rising from 382 to 385 CUP, consolidating its upward trend. The euro, on the other hand, remains unchanged, holding steady at 425 CUP after reaching its highest peak this week.
Exchange Rate Evolution
In contrast, the MLC has fallen by five pesos, declining from 255 to 250 CUP, showing what appears to be a sustained downward trajectory.
The dollar rebounds after the sanctions
The chart for the last week shows that the dollar began its ascent on June 30, just hours after President Donald Trump signed a presidential memorandum that tightens the economic embargo on Cuba.
The measure prohibits American tourism and restricts transactions with entities controlled by the regime, especially those linked to the military conglomerate GAESA.
The White House maintains that this action aims to "reorient" policy towards a maximum pressure position, similar to that of its first term. Consequently, the informal market has reacted with a progressive increase in the demand for dollars, both as a safe haven asset and as a means of informal exchange in anticipation of a possible tightening of restrictions.
The increase of 3 pesos in the last 24 hours reflects this growing pressure and marks a break from the relative stability of the USD, which had remained anchored at 380 CUP for several days.
The euro stabilizes, but after a strong rise
Although the euro has not moved in recent days, its stability is recent. The monthly chart shows a clearly upward trend since early June, when the European currency was around 395 CUP.
In just four weeks, it rose to reach 425 CUP, a historic record in the Cuban informal market.
The stabilization of this trading session can be interpreted as a technical pause rather than the beginning of a correction. The strong value of the euro continues to solidify its role as a strong alternative to the dollar in a context of exchange rate uncertainty.
MLC: The digital currency collapses
In the opposite direction, the MLC has continued its sustained decline. The loss of 5 pesos since Tuesday leaves its value at 250 CUP, reflecting the deterioration of confidence in this virtual currency, which only circulates on state platforms.
The recent U.S. sanctions, which directly impact companies controlled by GAESA—such as Tiendas Caribe and CIMEX, where MLC is used—have led many citizens to reduce their demand for this currency, viewing it as less functional or more risky.
A market that reacts to Washington
With a fragmented rate system and a promised monetary reform that has yet to be implemented, the informal market remains the primary gauge of Cuba's real economy.
Recent movements make it clear that political decisions in the United States and the inaction of the Cuban government continue to have a direct and swift impact on the behavior of currencies on the island.
The lack of transparency and institutional mechanisms for change continues to push Cubans into a volatile informal market deeply influenced by external factors.
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