The informal foreign exchange market in Cuba started this Sunday with complete stability in the quotations compared to the previous day.
The dollar remains at 380 Cuban pesos (CUP), according to the report from elTOQUE as shared by CiberCuba. Meanwhile, the euro and the freely convertible currency (MLC) stand at 410 CUP and 260 CUP, respectively.
Informal exchange rate in Cuba Sunday, June 22, 2025 - 07:00
- Exchange rate of the dollar (USD) to Cuban pesos (CUP): 380 CUP
- Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 410 CUP
- Exchange rate from (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 260 CUP
Despite the fact that the lack of variation could be seen as a momentary respite, the Cuban economic landscape reveals a precarious stability, sustained solely by the absence of changes—since there is no momentum to ease the pressure on the peso.
Exchange Rate Evolution
A concerning calm
The tranquility of the market conceals significant uncertainty. The Observatory of Currencies and Finances of Cuba (OMFi) has warned about a possible rise to 385 CUP for the dollar by the end of June, relying on patterns of excess demand following a gradual uptick since last month.
On the other hand, the values of the euro and the MLC remain stable, but do not establish a reliable trend; rather, they paint a picture of a stagnant economy devoid of dynamic variables.
This context of paralysis is set against a broader backdrop of unfulfilled promises regarding the restructuring of the currency market. Despite an official announcement of a floating exchange rate for 2025, the plan is currently stalled.
The minister Joaquín Alonso declared in the ANEC Congress that “alternatives are being analyzed,” although he admitted that “the risk is high” and that “the actions are defined… but for now, there will be no changes.”
Where is the reform?
According to experts, monetary restructuring faces structural, ideological, and technical obstacles. The plan appears to be more of a strategy to capture informal currencies without altering state control than a free-floating system.
Critics such as Miguel Alejandro Hayes and Mauricio de Miranda argue that under the current centralized logic, only a “managed” rate would be achieved, similar to the informal market, rather than true transparency.
De Miranda even suggests that allowing the operation of regulated private exchange houses—a common framework in more open economies—could help formalize the market.
Meanwhile, the three official exchange rates (24 CUP for state enterprises, 120 CUP in banks, and more than 370 CUP in the informal market) persist, creating inequity. In this maze, those who rely on fixed salaries or do not have access to remittances find their purchasing power increasingly eroded.
The day without fluctuations in currency prices should not be mistaken for structural relief. On the contrary, the stability in limbo highlights a double shortcoming: that of the Cuban peso, subjected to permanent distortions, and the lack of a coherent monetary reform.
The current stability is a fragile juncture, as fragile as the hopes that are postponed each day.
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