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The contraction of the Gross Domestic Product could exceed 13% by the end of this year, asserted the economist Omar Everleny Pérez Villanueva.
In an interview with Martí Noticias, Everleny stated that the cumulative contraction of GDP, which has exceeded 11% in recent years, could even reach 13% by the end of the current year.
"I believe it will be below 1.5%, and it makes sense: it is a country that has suffered from severe blackouts, and, in fact, the productive base has weakened because cities have experienced 20 hours of outages. It cannot be the same as in normal times. In other words, it is evident that the country is paralyzed in many industries," said the specialist.
Everleny believes that "the Cuban economy needs a strong dose of institutional changes, especially in terms of stimulating production, whether agricultural or industrial. But above all, I would think that there needs to be significant expenditures in foreign currency or the removal of obstacles in agriculture."
"It seems to me that the Cuban economy continues its trend of regression. In other words, I don't believe there is any extraordinary factor that could truly make it grow in the month and a half left until the end of the year," he affirms.
For the economist, the fact that Cuba is the second worst economy in the region, surpassed only by Haiti, according to an economic study for Latin America and the Caribbean by CEPAL, "shows that the measures have been insufficient up to this point."
"It is also important to note that the 'locomotive' factors, such as tourism, will not grow as planned; they will fall 20 to 25% short of what was expected, and there are no other emerging sectors showing significant strength to boost the economy," he adds.
The specialist also regrets "the deterioration that exists in some institutions, particularly in health, especially due to the epidemic currently being experienced, which has necessitated significant expenses for fumigation."
“The country cannot continue importing products and must address an issue that remains unresolved: the exchange rate. So, I believe there are many factors that continue to demonstrate that the country has significant distortions,” he concludes.
The Cuban government could do much more to reverse the situation
Recently, several independent economists consulted by the agency EFE agreed that the Cuban Government could do much more to reverse the situation, even under the current conditions.
The already prolonged economic crisis, which has lasted for five consecutive years, is compounded by emergencies in multiple areas: energy, food, health, production, agriculture, banking, finance, and monetary matters.
"The blockade affects us, but it does not depend on the will of the Government. It depends on them to end hyper-centralized planning and to give more autonomy to all existing forms of property, reduce bureaucracy, and, finally, not to fear the market," said Everleny in the interview.
For Tamarys Bahamonde, a professor at the City University of New York, the gravity of the moment cannot be attributed to a single element.
"The crisis is systemic, and all the problems are interconnected. It's like a spider web; you can't address one without affecting all the others," says Bahamonde.
The diagnosis is echoed among experts: the sanctions have an impact, but the main obstacle is the current economic model and the government's refusal to implement fundamental changes.
"Even amid the sanctions, there is much that can be done," assured Ricardo Torres, a researcher at the American University in Washington.
Among his recommendations: encourage investment, protect private property, establish a stable legal framework, promote competition, and seek funding from international organizations.
But he warns: "We need to dismantle the current model, but that's what they don't want."
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