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The Cuban economy is experiencing one of the deepest crises in its recent history, but eight independent economists consulted by the agency EFE agree that the Cuban government could do much more to reverse the situation, even under the current conditions.
In just a few days, the UN General Assembly will once again debate the Cuban resolution demanding an end to the U.S. embargo. Experts warn that focusing exclusively on U.S. sanctions against Cuba diverts attention from urgent internal reforms, many of which are within the reach of the Cuban authorities.
A multidimensional crisis
The already prolonged economic crisis, which has lasted for five consecutive years, is compounded by emergencies in multiple areas: energy, food, healthcare, production, agriculture, banking, finance, and monetary issues.
"The blockade affects us, but it does not depend on the government's will. It does depend on them to end hyper-centralized planning and grant more autonomy to all existing forms of property, reduce bureaucracy, and finally, not to fear the market," says Omar Everleny, a professor at the University of Havana.
A systemic crisis, not just structural
For Tamarys Bahamonde, a professor at the City University of New York, the gravity of the moment cannot be attributed to a single element.
"The crisis is systemic and all the problems are interconnected. It's like a spider web; you can't address one without affecting all the others," says Bahamonde.
The diagnosis is echoed among experts: the sanctions have an impact, but the primary obstacle is the existing economic model and the government's refusal to implement fundamental changes.
“Even amid sanctions, there is much that can be done,” asserts Ricardo Torres, a researcher at the American University in Washington.
Among his recommendations are: fostering investment, protecting private property, building a stable legal framework, promoting competition, and seeking financing from international organizations.
But he warns: “The current model must be dismantled, but that is what they do not want.”
Changes that must begin at the political level
Some economists insist that the first step must be political, not economic.
It is the case of Mauricio de Miranda, a professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in Cali (Colombia), who proposes starting with the "democratization" of the system and the inclusion of Cubans abroad as a source of ideas, human capital, and financial resources.
Then, it points to the economic plan: “Liberate the productive forces” through the elimination of “centralized administration,” the end of the GAESA business conglomerate (controlled by the military), and the removal of restrictions in the agricultural and foreign sectors.
At the legal level, it calls for "equality for all economic actors and predictability."
The system prevents departure
The economist Pedro Monreal also emphasizes the Constitution, suggesting as an initial step to remove "the planned direction of the economy" from the 2019 Magna Carta, which is established as a "central component of the system for directing economic and social development."
According to Monreal, "Cuba is in a type of crisis from which a country cannot recover within the frameworks of the system," and he emphasizes that substantial reforms are needed.
But he is skeptical: "The Cuban government does not seem willing to make such radical changes."
Internal obstacles to competition
The Cuban-American economist Carlos Martínez draws attention to the internal obstacles that hinder key sectors.
It proposes the liberalization of the agricultural sector, where most of the land is state-owned, and opening the economy to "competition" in areas dominated by state monopolies such as telecommunications and energy.
"Havana can stop hindering the dynamization of certain areas," they assert.
Impossible investments without credibility
Pavel Vidal, also a professor at Javeriana in Cali, asserts that the Government needs to take concrete measures to convince others of its reformist intentions.
"You must take at least some steps to convince that you will indeed implement a profound reform of that economic model, which is not credible."
In his analysis, the lack of credibility has made even traditional allies of Cuba, such as Russia and China, reluctant to invest.
"Cuba has historically sought international allies. However, that strategy is no longer working for a serious issue of lost credibility," he states.
"Even among historical allies: the Russians, the Chinese, they understand better than anyone the problems of the Cuban economic model and the need for reform."
A comprehensive transition: The only viable solution
The economist Miguel Alejandro Hayes, coordinator of the Institute for Caribbean Basin Research, goes even further: partial reforms are not enough.
With the lowest per capita income in Latin America, a "paralyzed business system," and infrastructure needs estimated at $60 billion, it considers that the country is in a state of "collapse" rather than a crisis.
“The only economic solution the Cuban government has to reverse the current collapse, a more appropriate term than crisis, is to create an economic and political transition that allows for the design and implementation of a plan for the reconstruction of Cuba,” he states.
The voices of these eight independent economists align in a clear diagnosis: the Cuban crisis is systemic and requires profound transformations.
While external sanctions continue to have an impact, the scope for internal action is broad and crucial.
From structural reforms to political transitions, the responsibility to act now falls on the Cuban government.
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