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The price of oil from Texas (WTI) fell this Tuesday to $54.98 per barrel, its lowest level since February 2021, amid a combination of geopolitical and supply factors that continue to pressure the global energy market, reported the agency EFE.
During 2025, the oil market has been under significant pressure due to the accelerated increase in production by OPEC+ countries, which began to reverse the cuts implemented in previous years. This increase in supply has contributed to an excess of crude in the market, weakening prices.
Peace expectations in Ukraine and lower risk premium
According to the cited source, another key factor behind the decline in WTI is the reduction of geopolitical risk premiums. Investors are closely monitoring the possibility of a peace agreement in Ukraine after representatives from the United States met in Berlin with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and European officials to discuss a plan proposed by Washington to end the conflict.
Since the large-scale Russian invasion in 2022, the threat of supply disruptions has kept oil prices elevated. However, the perception of a possible diplomatic resolution has alleviated those concerns, despite Ukraine continuing to carry out drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and the United States and the European Union maintaining sanctions on Russia's energy sector.
Venezuela and the pressure from the United States
The market is also closely watching the situation in Venezuela, whose oil exports have significantly declined following the sanctions imposed on ships and shipping companies that trade with the South American country. Nevertheless, analysts agree that these measures have prevented an even greater collapse in prices.
"The gradual decline in prices and recent monthly lows could have led to even lower levels were it not for the pressure from the United States on Venezuela," explained John Evans, an analyst at PVM, in comments to CNBC.
With WTI at nearly four-year lows, energy markets are encountering a scenario marked by oversupply, geopolitical uncertainty, and expectations of adjustments in the global oil balance, factors that will continue to influence price developments in the coming months.
Trump and the promise to lower gas prices in the U.S. even further: This is his forecast
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has repeatedly placed the price of gasoline at the center of his agenda, with a promise aimed at resonating with citizens concerned about inflation: to bring the cost of a gallon of fuel down to two dollars, or even less.
During a press conference held this Tuesday at the White House, Trump appeared confident. "We are now at about two dollars and fifty cents a gallon. I believe we will be at $2 a gallon. We might even lower it at some point," he stated.
An ambitious promise
Trump, who has made fuel prices a recurring topic in his speeches, emphasized that this goal could be achieved more easily "if we weren't building the national reserve strategy that Biden emptied before the elections, so they could try to get elected."
In his direct criticism of the former president, he accused his predecessor of using the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) for electoral purposes instead of actual emergencies.
"They drained these strategic national reserves that are really meant for something else. They are not meant to keep people happy with their gas prices. They are meant for war, they were meant for problems. Big problems," he said.
According to Trump, the policy of releasing reserves during the global energy crisis did not have the desired effect. "It didn't work too well for him. And it almost brought him down to the lowest level, I think, in history. It had very little impact because prices were very high," he emphasized.
In contrast, he defended his current management, stating: "Our prices for energy now... gasoline is very low. Electricity is going down. And when that falls, everything falls," he remarked, referring to the domino effect on production costs and consumer goods.
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