This Wednesday, two low-pressure areas continue to generate interest among meteorologists due to their potential development into tropical systems in the tropical Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea.
However, the most recent bulletin from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) lowers the percentage of formation of one of them in the next seven days.
Low pressure in the Tropical Atlantic
In the central tropical Atlantic, a large area of low pressure is producing disorganized rains and thunderstorms.
Although the environmental conditions are not completely favorable, this system is expected to move toward the west-northwest.
As it moves forward, it may encounter a more favorable environment for its development, which could lead to the formation of a tropical depression near the Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands by the end of this week.
According to the forecasts, there is a low probability -only 30%- that this system will form in the next 48 hours.
In a span of seven days, the possibility increases to 40%, although that figure is lower than the 60% reported by the NHC on Tuesday.
The popular Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera has described the structure of the phenomenon as "rather battered" for now; however, he clarified that "this system is still alive."
"If it remains alive over the next 48 hours, it has a chance of becoming a tropical depression as it moves northward toward the Lesser Antilles, it will leave the dry air zone and enter a more favorable area for its development," he noted on his YouTube channel.
Rubiera showed the possible paths of the phenomenon only if it reached a category of depression or tropical storm, and some of them place it making landfall in eastern Cuban territory.
Low pressure in the Caribbean Sea
At the same time, in the southwest of the Caribbean Sea, another low-pressure system is producing rain and thunderstorms.
Although the conditions for the development of this system are also scarce, it is estimated that it could strengthen slightly if it stays over water while moving northwest, towards Central America.
Regardless of whether it develops in a tropical system, heavy rains are expected that could affect several areas of Central America towards the end of the week.
Currently, this system has only a 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours, and just a 20% chance in the next seven days.
"If those areas of rain remain over the sea, a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form by the end of this week," said Rubiera, although he doesn't see it clearly given the current weather conditions in that area.
Monitoring of these areas will continue over the next few days due to the possibility of tropical storm formation and its effects in the affected areas.
What do you think?
COMMENTFiled under: