Cuba is experiencing an unprecedented demographic crisis. In 2024, the country lost more than 300,000 inhabitants and recorded its lowest birth rate in decades, according to recent data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).
These data confirm an accelerated process of population decline that has been developing for years and has worsened due to the economic crisis, the massive exodus of Cubans, and the aging population.
The official figures from ONEI indicate that the effective population of Cuba at the end of 2023 was 10,055,968 people, which represents a reduction of 10.1% compared to the data from 2020.
The country has lost over a million inhabitants in the last three years due to a negative migration balance and a sharp decline in the number of births.
Between 2021 and 2023, the natural population balance was negative: 284,891 births compared to 405,512 deaths, resulting in a net decrease of 120,621 people.
This process has been exacerbated by mass emigration: the net migration balance during this period was -1,005,006, with an exodus of over a million Cubans and only 6,263 immigrants in the country.
The lowest birth rate in decades
One of the most alarming aspects of the report is the decline in the birth rate. In 2022, there were 95,403 recorded births, which corresponds to a rate of 8.6 births per 1,000 inhabitants.
By 2024, preliminary estimates indicate a further decline, with only 71,374 births and a rate of 7.2 births per 1,000 inhabitants, the lowest in the island's recent history.
The phenomenon is attributed to several factors: the mass emigration of young people of reproductive age, the lack of economic and social incentives to start families, and the precarious access to basic resources such as housing and food. Additionally, the aging population increasingly reduces the proportion of people of childbearing age.
A country that is aging rapidly
Cuba has one of the oldest populations in Latin America. In 2023, 22.3% of the population was 60 years old or older, while the proportion of those under 15 years old fell below 15%.
This demographic imbalance severely impacts the pension system, the labor market, and healthcare services, which must adapt to a predominantly elderly population.
Projections indicate that, if these trends continue, by 2050 more than 30% of the Cuban population will be over 60 years old. By the end of the century, some studies predict that the Cuban population could fall below six million inhabitants, marking an unprecedented demographic contraction in the region.
Mass Exodus: The Main Cause of the Demographic Collapse
The exodus of Cubans in recent years has been a key factor in the decline of the population. According to ONEI, as of December 31, 2023, at least 1,249,733 Cubans were living outside the country, and approximately 75% of them did not meet the requirements to be considered permanent residents in Cuba.
The economic crisis, lack of opportunities, and political repression have driven migration, especially among young people and professionals. The United States, Spain, and other countries have received waves of Cuban migrants seeking better living conditions.
The departure of individuals of working and reproductive age exacerbates the birthrate crisis and accelerates the aging of the population.
Collapse of the labor force and employment
The decrease in the working-age population has had a significant impact on the labor market. According to ONEI, the population of working age (15-64 years) has considerably decreased in recent years, affecting economic growth and the sustainability of the labor system.
The labor force participation rate has fallen dramatically, and in 2023 it was estimated at approximately 63.5%, reflecting an increase in the population outside the labor market. Unemployment has risen, and informal employment has increased significantly, as many individuals seek to survive in sectors beyond state control due to the lack of opportunities in formal employment.
Key sectors of the economy, such as agriculture and industry, have lost a significant amount of skilled labor. Additionally, the number of people who have given up looking for work has increased due to the lack of viable economic opportunities in the state sector.
Formal employment in Cuba has decreased by over 250,000 workers in the last five years, reflecting the severe crisis in the labor market.
The number of Cubans outside the labor market has increased, including young people without jobs and older adults who are retiring early due to a lack of work incentives. This situation presents a huge challenge for the country's economic future, which is facing rapid aging without a sufficient labor base to support its productive apparatus.
Economic crisis and postponement of the population census
The Cuban government had planned to conduct a population census in 2025, but the deep economic crisis has forced a postponement. The lack of updated data complicates the planning of public policies to address demographic decline and exacerbates uncertainty about the future of the island.
The postponement of the census is seen by many experts as a strategy to conceal the true magnitude of the population crisis. Without precise data, the authorities lack effective tools to design strategies that can slow down the population decline and promote birth rates.
What has been the government's reaction?
Given this scenario, Cuban authorities have acknowledged the need to implement measures to encourage birth rates and curb emigration, but they have urged not to "dramatize" the situation.
Some proposals include increasing benefits for families with children, improving access to housing, and creating economic incentives for young people. However, these initiatives clash with the reality of a struggling economy, which limits the state's ability to provide effective incentives.
On the other hand, the lack of development prospects and political repression continue to drive thousands of Cubans to leave each year. As long as real conditions for economic and social stability are not created, it is unlikely that government measures will be able to reverse the migration trend.
Conclusion
The demographic decline of Cuba in 2024 is a reflection of a structural crisis that encompasses multiple dimensions: economic, social, and political. The loss of over 300,000 inhabitants in a single year and the lowest birth rate in decades are symptoms of a country experiencing accelerated population decline.
Without deep changes in the economy and political system, the exodus of Cubans and the low birth rate will continue to reduce the island's population. If effective solutions are not implemented, Cuba's demographic future could be even bleaker in the coming decades.
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