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José Luis Perelló, a researcher in tourism in Cuba, stated that the sector, considered by the regime as the "engine of the Cuban economy," is in a "lost decade".
In an interview granted to the EFE agency, the expert explained that the Island will not recover the level of international visitors it had before the pandemic until 2030.
“Historical series of tourism behavior in Cuba over the past 40-50 years indicate that (...) the highest year-on-year growth was 10.65%, during the thaw, during the opening with (U.S. President Barack) Obama. Based on the latest figures (and at that pace), it is estimated that this would reach around 4.5 million by the year 2030.”
According to Perelló, the crisis in tourism was "accentuated" by the pandemic, but the sector had already been "worn out" since 2018-2019.
Prior to the coronavirus pandemic, record highs were achieved with 4.7 million tourists, and that number was reduced by half (2.2) in 2024, the worst figure in 17 years.
Perelló recalls that the country had its highest revenues during the "thaw" period with the United States, under Barack Obama's administration.
Nevertheless, the specialist believes it was a mistake to rely so heavily on American tourism, as the sanctions from Trump subsequently came, and the sector declined.
"That was a big problem, a big mistake. Although no one can predict the future," he told EFE.
During those years, as specified, they committed to invest in building large luxury hotels, something that experts criticized as wasteful during an economic crisis and shortage of supplies, with hotel occupancy at only 30%.
Without a development plan
In Cuba, there is currently "no tourism development plan", stated Perelló. Instead, there is a "hotel investment plan" focused on the "real estate" sector.
According to the researcher, to overcome the crisis and regain the level of visitors, the regime must embrace the "multidestination spirit" and not seek vacationers from the outbound market when there are not enough flight connections to Havana.
Nevertheless, he argued: “I don't think it's targeting that multi-destination, it's targeting the old scheme of attracting tourists from the source market, and that's difficult."
In January, tourism recorded a 25% decrease in the arrival of international visitors compared to the same month of the previous year. This marks the third worst result for the month of January since 2003, surpassed only by those of 2021 and 2022, when the pandemic severely affected the sector.
The decline is largely due to the significant reduction in Canadian tourists, who have historically accounted for the largest flow of foreign visitors to the Island. The arrival of travelers from the United States and the Cuban community abroad also decreased, although to a lesser extent.
Of the ten main sources of travelers to Cuba, the only market that showed a slight increase was Germany, with 6,389 visitors in January of this year, but the number remains small compared to the influx of tourists from Canada or the Cuban community abroad.
The decline in tourism is directly reflected in key tourist destinations, where the drop in visitor arrivals is impacting both hotel infrastructure and private businesses, as well as employment in the sector.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Tourism Crisis in Cuba
Why is tourism in Cuba considered to be in a "lost decade"?
The expert José Luis Perelló indicates that tourism in Cuba will not recover its pre-pandemic levels until 2030. The decline in tourist arrivals began before the pandemic but intensified during it. Additionally, investments in hotel infrastructure have not attracted enough visitors due to the lack of an effective tourism development plan.
What factors have contributed to the decline of tourism in Cuba?
Multiple factors have contributed to the decline of tourism in Cuba, including financial issues, sanctions from the United States, a low perception of safety, and the lack of an effective development plan. Additionally, the hotel infrastructure is deteriorating, and there are problems with air connectivity and the supply of basic goods.
What is the economic impact of the tourism crisis in Cuba?
The tourism crisis has deeply affected the Cuban economy, as this sector is one of its main sources of foreign currency income. The decline in the number of visitors has significantly reduced revenues, worsening the already fragile economic situation of the country and leaving many hotels and related services in crisis.
What measures is the Cuban government taking to improve the situation of tourism?
The Cuban government has attempted to diversify its tourism offerings, focusing on nature, cultural, and health tourism, in addition to the traditional sun and beach tourism. However, the lack of a clear and effective strategy has hindered the recovery of the sector, and investments in hotel infrastructure have not had the expected impact due to a lack of demand.
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