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The president Donald Trump is currently experiencing the most critical period in terms of public perception of his economic performance since taking office, according to the latest All-America Economic Survey conducted by CNBC, an American television channel specializing in financial and business news.
The survey indicates a significant shift towards pessimism among Americans, driven by concerns over tariffs, inflation, and federal spending.
Economic approval: Historical lows
The survey, conducted from April 9 to 13 with a national sample of 1,000 people and a margin of error of ±3.1%, reveals that Trump has an overall approval rating of 44% compared to a disapproval rating of 51%.
Although this figure is only slightly higher than the one obtained at the end of his first term in 2020, the alarming aspect is the evaluation of his economic management: 43% approval and 55% disapproval, representing his worst net result in economic matters since he took office.
This is the first time in a CNBC survey that Trump has recorded negative net figures on this aspect during his term.
This change comes following his reelection, when economic optimism seemed to be on the rise.
Partisanship and division at the grassroots level
While support among Republican voters remains strong, the decline among other sectors is notable:
Democrats: Net economic disapproval of -90 percentage points, 30 points worse than during the first term.
Independents: Increase in rejection by 23 percentage points.
Manual workers, a key component of their electoral coalition, show a 14-point increase in disapproval compared to their first term.
Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Associates, a Democratic polling firm that collaborates with CNBC, summarizes the situation: “Donald Trump was elected specifically to improve the economy, and so far, people are not liking what they see.”
Gloomy economic outlook
Pessimism regarding the country’s economic evolution has reached unprecedented levels since 2023.
49% believe that the economy will worsen in the coming year.
The breakdown by political affiliation reveals a deep polarization:
-76% of Republicans believe that the economy will improve.
-83% of Democrats and 54% of Independents believe it will worsen.
Furthermore, among those who believe that the president's policies will bring benefits, 27% estimate that it will take more than a year to see positive results.
On the other hand, 40% of critics believe that their policies are already harming the economy.
Micah Roberts from Public Opinion Strategies (a Republican polling firm) emphasizes: “We are in a whirlwind of turbulent changes... It's the negative partisan reaction that drives and sustains the discontent.”
Tariffs at the center of discontent
A significant source of discontent is trade policies.
The survey indicates that 49% of Americans disapprove of widespread tariffs, while only 35% approve of them. The analysis of partisan division is revealing:
Democrats: Net disapproval of 83 points.
Independents: Net disapproval of 26 points.
Republicans: Net approval of 59 points, 20 less than the president's overall approval (79%).
This suggests an erosion of support even within their political base, especially since many believe that tariffs negatively impact American workers, inflation, and the economy as a whole.
Commercial relations: Allies yes, China no
An overwhelming majority of respondents view Canada, Mexico, the EU, and Japan as economic opportunities rather than threats.
This represents a shift from the previous vision during Trump's first term.
Conversely, China is seen as an economic threat by 44% of Americans, compared to 35% who view it as an opportunity.
This perception could reflect the success of the confrontational rhetoric towards China, but it also suggests a lack of public support for its aggressive stance with traditional allies.
Inflation and spending: the most critical areas
Inflation represents the area with the greatest disapproval for the president:
-60% disapproves of his management, compared to only 37% who approve.
Among Republicans, it is their weakest performance, with a 58% net approval rate.
The fear of a recession has also grown significantly:
57% believe that we are already in a recession or will enter one soon, a significant increase from 40% in March 2024. Among them, 12% think that the recession has already begun.
Regarding federal government spending, 51% disapprove of it, compared to 45% who approve.
In foreign policy, disapproval stands at 53%, with only 42% approval.
Immigration: The Only Breather for Trump
The only issue where the president receives majority support is immigration
53% approves of her management of the southern border (compared to 41% who disapprove).
52% approve of their deportation policies (versus 45% who oppose them).
This is also the only area where he enjoys a majority among independents, and up to 22% of Democrats approve of his border approach, which represents his best performance among that group.
Stock market pessimism and uncertain political future
The perception of the stock market has also taken a turn.
53% believe it is a bad time to invest, while only 38% think it is a good time, marking the lowest point in two years.
This change is noteworthy as December recorded the highest level of market optimism in the 17-year history of the survey.
However, this decline in approval has not yet translated into gains for the Democrats.
The preference for control of Congress remains virtually unchanged: 48% in favor of the Democrats, 46% in favor of the Republicans, figures similar to those recorded in March 2022.
This scenario places President Trump in a delicate position: His base remains strong, but swing sectors are showing signs of fatigue and skepticism.
The economy, central to his reelection, is now becoming an unstable terrain, the political consequences of which could determine the course of the next electoral cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions about Trump's Economic Popularity and Economic Prospects in the U.S.
How is Trump's economic policy affecting his popularity?
Trump's economic popularity is at historic lows according to a CNBC survey, with a 43% approval rating and a 55% disapproval rating. This decline is primarily due to the discontent generated by his tariff policies, inflation, and federal spending.
What impact do Trump's tariffs have on the U.S. economy?
Trump's tariffs have generated significant discontent among the population, with a 49% disapproval rate of these policies. The tariffs have been criticized for negatively affecting American workers and increasing inflation, which has contributed to a pessimistic economic climate.
What is the economic outlook for the U.S. in 2025?
According to JPMorgan Chase & Co., a recession in the U.S. is expected in the second half of 2025. A contraction in GDP, high inflation, and an increase in unemployment are anticipated, driven by Trump's trade policy.
How does inflation affect Trump's administration?
Inflation is one of the main points of disapproval for Trump, with 60% of respondents opposing his management in this area. High inflation and fears of a recession have eroded his popular support.
What economic measures has Trump taken in response to the current situation?
Trump has defended his tariff policies as a means to rebuild the American economy, despite criticism and falling markets. He has also downplayed the risks of recession, arguing that the U.S. economy will experience a significant boom.
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