Cuba is facing an unprecedented demographic crisis, with an effective population of 9,740,000 inhabitants, which represents more than a 10% decrease compared to the year 2020.
According to official data presented by Juan Carlos Alfonso Fraga, Deputy Head of the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), the effective population of the country has drastically decreased in the last four years, currently standing at 9,740,000 inhabitants, as reported by the official newspaper Granma.
The information was presented at the most recent Council of Ministers as part of the follow-up on the implementation of the Policy for addressing Demographic Dynamics, a matter that has gained increasing importance on the government agenda due to rapid aging and the mass exodus of citizens.
According to official figures, by the end of 2023, Cuba had 10,055,968 people effectively residing in the country, reflecting a decrease of 10.1% compared to 2020.
In just a few months, the country has lost more than 300,000 residents, reaffirming the acceleration of the migration phenomenon and the low birth rate.
The authorities did not specify the specific causes of this decline, but experts point to a combination of factors such as economic deterioration, an aging population, and an unprecedented exodus of young people and professionals seeking better opportunities abroad.
These are the official figures, but last March an independent study revealed even more alarming data. According to this, Cuba lost 24% of its population over the last four years, a decline that only occurs in wartime situations.
The study, conducted by the renowned Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, and accessed by the EFE agency, questioned the government’s data and estimated that by the end of 2024, there would be 8,025,624 people living on the island, significantly lower than the 9,748,532 indicated by the official Cuban statistics.
The demographic decline not only poses a challenge for the island's economic future but also further complicates the sustainability of the health system, pensions, and the labor market, they warn.
The Cuban government has reiterated the need to strengthen policies that encourage childbirth and curb emigration, although the results thus far have been limited.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Demographic Crisis in Cuba
Why has the population in Cuba decreased in recent years?
The population in Cuba has declined due to a massive exodus of citizens and an extremely low birth rate. These factors have been exacerbated by a profound economic deterioration, which has driven many young people and professionals to seek better opportunities abroad. Additionally, the aging population has contributed to the decrease in the number of births.
What is the impact of population decline on Cuba's economy?
The population decline in Cuba negatively impacts its economy by reducing the available workforce. This limits economic growth and places a significant burden on the State to provide services and subsidies to a predominantly aging population. The lack of young entrepreneurs and the decrease in innovation also hinder the country's economic development.
How is the aging population affecting public services in Cuba?
The aging population in Cuba exerts considerable pressure on public services, particularly in areas such as the healthcare system and pensions. The growing proportion of elderly individuals increases the demand for medical and social support services, while the decrease in the working-age population complicates the funding of these services. This imbalance could lead to an economic and social collapse if appropriate measures are not taken.
What actions is the Cuban government taking to address the demographic crisis?
The Cuban government has expressed the need to implement measures to encourage birth rates and curb emigration. However, so far, clear and effective solutions have not been presented. The lack of an updated census and concrete policies to tackle aging and mass emigration hampers adequate planning to address the demographic crisis.
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