Cuba's National Electric System (SEN) is going through one of its most critical periods of the year, and it is dangerously close to the brink of a total collapse that has previously left the country in complete darkness.
According to the official statement issued by Unión Eléctrica (UNE), the electricity generation deficit will reach 1,700 MW during peak hours this Tuesday, which ensures prolonged blackouts across almost the entire country.
In the afternoon of this Monday, the impact was total for 24 hours and remained without effective recovery in the early hours of today. At 9:40 PM on Monday, the UNE recorded a maximum impact of 1,749 MW, even exceeding what was predicted by the state-owned enterprise, due to a demand higher than forecasted.
Collapsed system
The SEN only has 1,800 MW of availability for an estimated demand of 2,870 MW at dawn, leaving a deficit of more than 1,100 MW. By noon, the shortfall is expected to remain around 1,200 MW.
The situation is worsened by multiple technical incidents. Three key units are out of service: unit 3 of the CTE Cienfuegos, which was recently reactivated after maintenance; unit 2 of the CTE Felton; and unit 6 of Renté.
Additionally, five other units are down for maintenance, including unit 4 from Cienfuegos, units 2 and 3 from Santa Cruz, and equipment in Nuevitas and Renté.
The deficit is also impacted by supply issues. There are 62 distributed generation plants not operating due to a lack of fuel, and 107 MW are offline due to a shortage of lubricating oil, totaling 552 MW of capacity rendered unusable for these reasons.
For the nighttime peak, the UNE only expects the partial entry of unit 6 from Renté with 50 MW, which would leave a availability of just 1,850 MW against a demand of 3,480 MW, resulting in an impact of 1,700 MW. A nationwide blackout is practically guaranteed.
The energy situation in Cuba continues to deteriorate, as the population endures entire days without electricity and with no solutions in sight.
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