The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its official forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season of 2025 on Thursday, warning that it will be an "above-average" season, with a high likelihood of significant storms.
The report, presented at a press conference just days before the official start of the season (which runs from June 1 to November 30), estimates the formation of between 13 and 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could develop into hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 could reach major category (Category 3 or higher).
NOAA attributes this forecast to several key climatic factors: warmer-than-normal temperatures in the surface waters of the Atlantic and the Caribbean; a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which does not inhibit the development of cyclones as an active El Niño would; and a more intense West African monsoon, which can generate more tropical waves, the "seeds" that often develop into hurricanes.
The agency estimates a 60% probability of a season being above normal, compared to a 25% chance of it being close to average and only a 15% chance of being below average.
The NOAA forecast aligns with the one published weeks earlier by Colorado State University, which predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, all above average.
In a typical season, 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes are usually formed.
The 2024 hurricane season was one of the most active in the last decade, with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, leaving behind a trail of damage and victims.
Three names from that season—Beryl, Helene, and Milton—were retired due to the devastating impact they caused.
Although forecasts do not indicate where or when the storms will form, NOAA emphasizes that individuals living in vulnerable areas should review their emergency plans and prepare in advance, especially in prone areas such as southern Florida and the Keys.
The names selected for storms this season are: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
Frequently Asked Questions about the 2025 Hurricane Season
How many storms and hurricanes are expected in the 2025 hurricane season?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts the formation of between 13 and 19 named storms in the 2025 hurricane season. Of these, between 6 and 10 could become hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 could reach major category (category 3 or higher). The forecast indicates an "above-average" season, with high cyclonic activity.
What are the factors that contribute to an active hurricane season in 2025?
NOAA attributes the forecast of an active season to warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean surface, a neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and a more intense West African monsoon. These factors create favorable conditions for the development and strengthening of tropical cyclones.
What are the chances of hurricanes impacting the Caribbean and the U.S. in 2025?
The forecast from Colorado State University estimates a high probability that one or more intense hurricanes will make landfall in the Caribbean (56%) and on the coast of the United States (51%). These figures exceed the average values of recent decades, indicating a heightened risk for 2025.
What preparedness measures are recommended for the 2025 hurricane season?
NOAA emphasizes the importance for individuals living in vulnerable areas to review their emergency plans and prepare in advance. Especially in prone areas like South Florida and the Keys, early preparation is key to mitigating the impacts of potential hurricanes.
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