Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera explained this Monday that the first tropical wave of the year has already left Africa, but it poses no danger.
"One interesting thing, it remains interesting, although it is a weak system. The first tropical wave of this year emerged yesterday, Sunday the 18th, from Africa. A weak system that is moving through the Atlantic without any consequences. Conditions are not favorable for any formation in the Atlantic at this time," Rubiera detailed on his YouTube channel.
The specialist recalled that during the last season, 51 tropical waves departed from Africa towards the Atlantic, which resulted in an active cyclonic season, quite active, as he stated.
He also announced that this week he will present a special program with global forecasts for the 2025 hurricane season
"I am preparing a special program with information about all the forecasting powers and all the assessments that various meteorological entities around the world are providing about the 2025 hurricane season, so that you have complete and firsthand information," she emphasized.
Regarding the forecast for this week, Rubiera indicated that there are no developing systems of interest, but isolated rains are expected to continue due to daytime warming, particularly in Cuba and other areas of the Caribbean.
"We will have in the Greater Antilles rains purely due to daytime heating, meaning showers, rain, and thunderstorms in the afternoon. The rainy season begins this month of May, and this is how it starts, slowly and progressively," he emphasized.
He added that evening rains will be more frequent in the eastern two-thirds of the country, although isolated precipitation in other regions cannot be ruled out.
Additionally, he noted the presence of an anticyclone that keeps an area with lower cloud cover covering the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and Yucatán, although he warned that this does not prevent local rain from occurring.
"It doesn’t mean there won’t be rain, because the afternoon heat causes local showers. There will be downpours and thunderstorms, and some of them may be severe. Always keep that in mind," he emphasized.
Rubiera concluded by recalling that these conditions are typical at the start of the rainy season, which is characterized by instability in the afternoons and intense heat across much of the Caribbean and Central America.
The 2025 hurricane season has been rated by experts as potentially very active. Among the most notable factors is the likelihood that the La Niña phenomenon will strengthen during the peak months of the season, which has historically favored a greater formation of cyclones in the Atlantic basin.
The advance forecast from Colorado State University warned of a season with figures above the usual: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 of them of great intensity.
These data reflect a more aggressive outlook than the historical average and are supported by the gradual cooling of the equatorial Pacific and the anomalous warming of the tropical Atlantic.
In the national sphere, the Cuban Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) published its official analysis, agreeing on the likelihood of an active season.
It is expected that at least one major hurricane could directly affect Cuban territory or its maritime zone, which is why the population and local authorities are urged to strengthen their preparedness from the early weeks.
Additionally, the official list of names for tropical storms for this year has already been released, consisting of 21 names approved by the World Meteorological Organization.
This tool not only facilitates public tracking of the systems but also reflects the expectation of a significant number of formations during the ongoing cyclonic cycle.
Frequently Asked Questions about the first tropical wave of the year and the weather forecast in the Caribbean
Why won't the first tropical wave of the year affect the Caribbean?
The first tropical wave of the year is a weak system moving through the Atlantic without causing any consequences. José Rubiera explained that the current conditions do not favor the formation of storms in the Atlantic, which minimizes any impact on the Caribbean.
What is the expected outlook for the 2025 hurricane season in the Caribbean?
For the 2025 hurricane season, an active period is anticipated with 15 tropical cyclones expected in the North Atlantic, of which 8 could develop into hurricanes. A high risk is forecasted for the Caribbean, with a 75% probability that at least one hurricane will intensify in the region.
What weather conditions are expected in Cuba for this week?
Rubiera indicated that isolated rain and thunderstorms are expected in the afternoon due to daytime heating, especially in the eastern two-thirds of Cuba. Despite the presence of a high-pressure system that reduces cloud cover, localized rainfall is still possible.
What forecast has been given for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?
The Colorado State University anticipates a more active season than usual, with 17 named storms, 9 of which could become hurricanes, and 4 reaching major category status. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are expected to favor the development of tropical cyclones.
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