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A tropical wave located in the central Atlantic waters was identified on Sunday as the AL94 system, following the development of a small area of low pressure.
The National Hurricane Center of the United States (NHC) noted this Monday that the system has shown few changes in its organization over the past few hours and that environmental conditions are only moderately favorable for its development.
The chances of it developing into a tropical cyclone remain low, with only a 20% probability in the next 48 hours and the same percentage for the upcoming seven days.
Although the intensity of the disturbance is limited, the system is expected to reach the eastern Caribbean Sea in the next 72 hours, which could lead to an increase in rainfall in that region, experts warned.
The Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez confirmed that the phenomenon is moving toward the west-northwest at a speed of between 10 and 15 miles per hour, heading toward the Lesser Antilles.
The current environment could allow for some development in the short term, but conditions will become unfavorable later due to the increase in shear winds and the intrusion of dry air to the north of the system.
Ruisánchez warned that this disturbance could play an important role in the regional atmospheric dynamics by acting as a "sacrifice," meaning it could facilitate the passage of subsequent tropical waves, a common phenomenon at this time of year during the hurricane season.
Frequently Asked Questions about Cyclonic Activity in the Atlantic 2025
What is the probability that the AL94 system will become a tropical cyclone?
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has indicated that the probability of the AL94 system becoming a tropical cyclone is 20% in the next 48 hours and maintains the same percentage for the next seven days. Although environmental conditions are moderately favorable, it is unlikely that the system will develop significantly.
What impact could the AL94 system have in the Caribbean?
Although the AL94 system has a limited intensity, it is expected to reach the eastern Caribbean Sea in the next 72 hours, which could lead to an increase in rainfall in the region. This could especially impact the Lesser Antilles, towards which the phenomenon is moving at a speed of 10 to 15 miles per hour.
How does Sahara dust influence the development of tropical cyclones?
The Sahara dust creates a dry environment that inhibits the strengthening of tropical disturbances, such as the tropical wave monitored by Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez. This atmospheric phenomenon is surrounded by a layer of air with high concentrations of dust, which significantly reduces the chances of cyclonic development.
What is expected for the 2025 hurricane season in the Atlantic?
The Colorado State University (CSU) predicts that the 2025 hurricane season will be more active than usual, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. This is attributed to ocean temperatures in the Atlantic being well above average, and the expected absence of the El Niño phenomenon, which favors the formation of tropical cyclones.
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