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The Cuban meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez warned this Saturday that the chances of a tropical wave developing in the Atlantic are very low, estimated at just 10%, due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.
“I don't think this tropical wave will survive,” said the specialist on Facebook and explained that the current environment does not allow for significant development of the system.
He added that if any developments occur, they would take place within the next 48 hours, as conditions will become even more unfavorable afterward.
Ruisánchez pointed out that the wave is surrounded by a layer of air with high concentrations of Saharan dust, which creates a dry environment that inhibits the strengthening of this tropical disturbance.
The meteorologist emphasized that, although the phenomenon is being monitored, it does not pose an immediate threat, and reiterated that monitoring must continue to anticipate any changes in its behavior.
During the current hurricane season, several significant events have been recorded in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, reflecting an active behavior of the atmospheric system.
One of the most significant moments was the formation of Chantal, the third tropical storm of the year, which marked an early milestone in the evolution of the season due to its rapid development as a named phenomenon.
This event was part of a series of developments that included the high probability of cyclonic formation in the Gulf of Mexico, where an area of instability was closely monitored for its potential evolution, although it ultimately did not consolidate into an organized tropical system.
Furthermore, experts continued the monitoring of a disturbance with possible cyclonic formation in the southwest Caribbean, whose evolution garnered attention from meteorological centers due to partially favorable conditions for its development.
Meanwhile, a key update on hurricane forecasting was made, raising expectations for the remainder of the season and highlighting the potential impact of factors such as ocean temperature and tropical wave activity in the Atlantic.
Frequently Asked Questions about the tropical wave and Sahara dust in Cuba
Why is the probability of tropical wave development in the Atlantic low?
The likelihood of the tropical wave developing in the Atlantic is low due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions, with only a 10% chance of development estimated. The meteorologist Raydel Ruisánchez explained that the wave is surrounded by a layer of air with high concentrations of Saharan dust, creating a dry environment that inhibits the strengthening of the tropical disturbance.
What impact does Sahara dust have on the development of tropical systems?
The Sahara dust creates a dry environment that inhibits the development and strengthening of tropical systems. This phenomenon introduces dry particles into the atmosphere, reducing the moisture necessary for tropical waves to strengthen and evolve into tropical cyclones.
What is the forecast for the 2025 hurricane season in Cuba?
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual, with a high number of storms and hurricanes. NOAA has forecasted between 13 and 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 could reach major category. The Institute of Meteorology of Cuba also warned of an active period with a moderate risk of direct impact on the country.
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