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Most Cubans believe that the price of the dollar will continue to soar in the informal market and will reach 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) before the end of the year, according to a survey conducted by CiberCuba Noticias on social media.
Of a total of 2,305 votes, 86% believed that both the dollar and the euro will reach that level or even exceed it in the coming months.
Seven percent believed that only the euro will reach 500, while five percent thinks that neither of the two currencies will hit that figure. Only two percent predicted that it will be solely the dollar that reaches the threshold of 500 CUP.
The expectations of Cubans reflect the ongoing devaluation of the peso, impacted by inflation, the fiscal deficit, and the lack of foreign currency in the national economy.
On the street, transactions occur at prices well above the official rate set by the government, which still fails to control the currency market.
In comments on the survey, several users expressed their pessimism about the economic situation. “This is out of control, it keeps rising every day,” wrote one reader.
Another person commented, "As long as there is no production or dollars coming in, it will keep rising."
Economics experts told the independent media outlet El Toque that "the floating rate is going to change expectations; there are months of more uncertainties ahead due to the very nature of the market," and that "they don't believe the rate will reach 500, but it will get close."
The increasing uncertainty reinforces the forecast that the Cuban peso will continue to lose value for the remainder of 2025, within a context of energy crisis, shortages, and economic contraction acknowledged by the authorities themselves.
Frequently Asked Questions about the Devaluation of the Cuban Peso and the Rise of the Dollar
Why is the dollar expected to reach 500 Cuban pesos?
The dollar could reach 500 Cuban pesos due to the ongoing devaluation of the peso, inflation, and the lack of foreign currency in the national economy. Most Cubans, according to a survey, expect the dollar and the euro to reach that figure before the end of the year, reflecting a lack of confidence in the country's economic stability.
How does the devaluation of the Cuban peso affect daily life?
The devaluation of the Cuban peso severely impacts the purchasing power of the population, as salaries in pesos are insufficient to cover the prices of products and services that are priced in foreign currencies. This forces many to turn to the informal market to access the necessary foreign currency to purchase basic goods.
What factors contribute to the increase of the dollar in the Cuban informal market?
The rise of the dollar in the informal market is due to the high demand and low supply of foreign currency, persistent inflation, and a lack of trust in the government's economic policies. Despite official attempts to control inflation, the informal market continues to reflect the true economic situation of the island.
What is the impact of inflation on the current Cuban economy?
The inflation in Cuba causes a constant loss of value of the peso, which increases the cost of living and reduces the purchasing power of the population. This situation is reflected in the need to resort to the informal market to obtain foreign currency and in the difficulty of maintaining economic stability in the country.
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