The Meteorological Institute of Cuba has issued a television update on the evolution and imminent impact of Hurricane Melissa, a system that is extremely dangerous and continues to intensify as it approaches the southern part of the eastern region of the country.
According to the latest report from the Weather Forecasting Center (INSMET), the hurricane is on a path that will directly impact the provinces of Granma, Holguín, and Santiago de Cuba during the early morning of Wednesday, October 29.
An extremely intense and dangerous hurricane
Melissa has reached maximum sustained winds of 280 km/h, with gusts exceeding 300 km/h, which classifies it as a major hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The central pressure continues to steadily decline and is currently at 901 hPa, a clear indication of its destructive power and intensification process.
In the last hour, the system has recorded a slight shift toward the north-northeast, moving at a translation speed of 7 km/h.
Its center is located at 17.3 degrees north latitude and 78.3 degrees west longitude, placing it 170 kilometers west-southwest of Kingston (Jamaica), 285 kilometers south-southwest of Cabo Cruz and 400 kilometers southwest of Santiago de Cuba.
A large and dangerous cyclonic structure
The hurricane Melissa has a wide area of influence. The hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 kilometers from the eye of the system, while the tropical storm-force winds cover a radius of up to 315 kilometers.
In addition, the hurricane is carrying a vast area of rain that is already affecting Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica, where the impacts of wind and precipitation are significant.
According to INSMET, Melissa is already influenced by a pre-existing trough, a weather configuration that had been indicated in previous days as key for the system to curve and head towards the eastern part of Cuba.
This interaction between the cyclone and the trough has been decisive in confirming the expected path.
Expected impact in Cuba: The early morning will be critical
The trajectory cone is already touching Jamaica, and it is expected that during the morning today, Tuesday, the center of the hurricane will pass over that Caribbean island, which may cause some fluctuations in its intensity.
However, Cuban meteorological authorities warn that the direct impact on the eastern region of the country will occur during the early hours of this Wednesday.
Forecasts indicate that Melissa will reach Cuban territory still as a powerful hurricane, leading to expectations of severe impact, particularly in southeastern areas.
"The good news is that by Wednesday afternoon it will be moving away from Cuba," the statement from the Forecast Center specifies.
However, the effects of strong winds and persistent rains will continue for several more hours, even after the center of the cyclone has moved away.
Accumulated rainfall and extreme surf
The behavior of the precipitation will be particularly severe.
Heavy rainfall is expected between today, Tuesday, and Wednesday morning, with totals potentially exceeding 400 millimeters in the mountainous and coastal areas of Granma, Holguín, and Santiago de Cuba.
As for the sea conditions, swells with waves reaching up to four meters will hit the southeastern coastal areas starting early in the afternoon. In the most exposed areas of Granma, the waves could reach heights of up to seven meters.
Official weather forecast for Tuesday, October 28
INSMET has also released its general forecast for the rest of the country, highlighting:
"Cloudy skies will prevail in the eastern region with some showers, rainfall, and isolated thunderstorms, which will become more frequent in the afternoon, being strong and intense in some areas."
For the rest of the national territory, a calmer outlook is expected: "In the rest of the country, it will be partly cloudy, with occasional overcast skies and isolated rain."
Maximum temperatures will range between 30 and 33 degrees Celsius in the west and center, with slightly higher values in some interior areas.
In the east, temperatures will range between 26 and 29 degrees, decreasing further in areas where clouds and rain persist. At night, minimum temperatures are expected to be between 21 and 24 degrees, and up to 25 degrees in coastal areas.
Winds will be from the northeast to the east, with speeds between 10 and 25 km/h, but they will intensify in the eastern region during the afternoon, reaching between 35 and 50 km/h, with higher gusts in coastal areas, where they could exceed the threshold for a tropical storm during the nighttime hours.
"Strong swells will prevail in the southeastern region and in the northern coast of this area. Along the rest of the southern coast, there will be waves, with slight wave activity on the northwestern coast and calm seas along the central northern coast."
Call for caution and monitoring by the authorities
Cuban authorities urge the population, especially in the eastern provinces, to stay informed through official reports, adhere to civil protection measures, and cooperate with the preventive evacuations that have already begun in high-risk areas.
Hurricane Melissa represents a serious and imminent threat, with its danger stemming from both its intensity and its slow movement, which could prolong the adverse effects on the national territory.
The Meteorological Institute will continue to issue regular updates as the situation evolves.
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