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The president Donald Trump arrives at the midterm elections with a divided country and a majority disapproval, but with a more united Republican bloc than ever.
According to the survey from Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos, 59% of Americans disapprove of his management, compared to 41% who support it.
Still, 86% of Republican voters maintain their support for the president, while 95% of Democrats and 69% of independents disapprove of him.
This extreme polarization leaves the country in a technical tie: if the legislative elections were held today, 46% would vote for a Democrat and 44% for a Republican, according to the same survey.
The most revealing data is not at the extremes, but in the disconnection: 68% of Americans believe that Democrats are “disconnected from reality”, and 63% share the same opinion about Trump.
Neither the president nor the opposition manage to inspire confidence, which foreshadows an election defined more by disillusionment than by hope.
"Political fatigue is the new enemy of Democrats," concluded the Ipsos report. "Discontented voters do not necessarily mobilize against Trump; many simply disengage from the process."
The Republicans hold a slim majority in the House of Representatives, but the Democrats hope to regain ground in 2026. However, Trump maintains a structural advantage: his supporters are more loyal and more likely to vote.
Nine out of ten citizens who approve of his management say they will vote for a Republican, while only eight out of ten who disapprove of it lean towards a Democrat.
Additionally, according to the Pew Research Center, only 50% of Americans today consider Russia a direct "enemy," a significant drop from 2022.
This data reflects a shift in the electorate's priorities, placing more emphasis on the economy and domestic security rather than foreign policy, which could benefit Trump, despite his international weariness.
With inflation still high, immigration at the center of the debate, and a country divided over its president, the United States is heading toward unpredictable midterm elections, where every vote will count and disillusionment could be the big winner.
Why the 2026 midterm elections will be crucial for Trump's political future and that of the U.S.
The legislative elections in November 2026 will be much more than a routine date on the American political calendar: they represent a referendum on Donald Trump's power and the health of the country's institutional democracy.
In this election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and around 35 of the 100 in the Senate will be renewed, along with several governors, state secretaries, and attorneys general in different states. Therefore, this is the moment when the electorate can reconfigure the balance of power between the White House and Congress.
Currently, the Republican Party holds a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, while the Senate is almost evenly divided, with a slight Republican advantage that has allowed Trump to advance parts of his executive agenda without significant obstacles.
However, the survey from Washington Post, ABC News, and Ipsos shows a key finding: 64% of Americans believe that Trump has overstepped the use of his presidential powers, and a majority thinks that Congress should exercise greater oversight over his decisions.
That feeling of institutional distrust turns the 2026 legislative elections into **a balance of power election**: a scenario where the voter might seek to **place limits on the Executive** rather than reward or punish a party.
The 2025 Elections: The Political Thermometer
The elections held this Tuesday (November 4, 2025) in Virginia and New Jersey, as well as the race for the mayoralty of New York, have been interpreted as a preview of the electoral climate that may dominate in 2026.
In Virginia, where Republicans were attempting to consolidate their legislative control, preliminary results show a close contest, with Democrats making gains in key suburban districts. In New Jersey, Democrats held onto the governorship, but with a smaller margin than in previous cycles, which confirms a less mobilized opposition base.
These local elections, along with those in Kentucky and Mississippi, have served as a laboratory to gauge the wear of Trumpism outside the federal sphere. The trends suggest that, although Trump maintains a loyal base, independents and moderates continue to seek a counterbalance.
What is at stake in 2026
- House of Representatives (435 seats): If the Democrats manage to win at least twenty districts currently held by Republicans, they would regain the majority and could halt or review Trump’s executive orders, many of which have sparked judicial and political controversy.
- Senate (35 seats): The Republicans will defend several seats in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada. A loss of just two seats could return control of the Senate to the Democrats, which would have a direct impact on judicial nominations and foreign policy.
- State Elections: At least 11 states will elect a governor, including Delaware, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Utah, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia. State control is crucial for electoral administration, immigration policy, and district redistribution.
Institutional risk
The Washington Post and ABC News highlight that a majority of Americans believe Congress should limit the excesses of presidential power.
This diagnosis is intensified following a year in which Trump has used executive orders to modify federal structures, intervene in universities, and deploy National Guard troops in cities without the approval of governors.
The Supreme Court has yet to rule on several of these measures, but citizens seem to have already made their judgment: 64% believe that Trump is abusing his authority.
For this reason, more than a partisan vote, the 2026 elections could become a vote for checks and balances: an attempt by many voters to prevent power from concentrating uncontrollably in an Executive that shows a tendency to govern by decree.
“These elections will be a test not only for Trump but for the system,” noted an analysis by Ipsos. “If Congress remains compliant, American democracy risks losing its checks and balances.”
Conclusion
In a country where the majority disapproves of the president (59%), but the opposition fails to inspire confidence, the 2026 elections are shaping up to be a contest between institutionalism and the concentration of power.
Trump arrives with a strong political capital within the Republican Party, but with a populace that —according to the survey itself— demands clear limits to his authority.
And that may be the key to the next electoral cycle: not only who governs the United States, but how and under what democratic controls they do so.
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