The informal currency market in Cuba opened with a relative stability in the dollar and a new drop in the euro, a movement that leaves those closely following the evolution of currencies on the island puzzled, amidst contradictory signals and a general atmosphere of distrust toward the Cuban peso.
According to the representative rate published by the independent media elTOQUE, the US dollar (USD) remains at 410 Cuban pesos (CUP) this Saturday, the same value as the previous day.
On the other hand, the euro (EUR) dropped another 10 pesos, standing at 450 CUP, while the Convertible Currency (MLC) remains unchanged at 205 CUP.
Informal exchange rate in Cuba Saturday, November 8, 2025 - 06:37
Exchange Rate Evolution
- Dollar exchange rate (USD) to Cuban pesos CUP: 410 CUP
- Exchange rate of the euro (EUR) to Cuban pesos CUP: 450 CUP
- Exchange rate from (MLC) to Cuban pesos CUP: 205 CUP
The gap between the dollar and the euro has narrowed to just 40 pesos, a sign that some interpret as a technical correction, while others see it as a temporary distortion in the informal market. The reality is that, as has been the case for months, the behavior of the currencies reflects an economy lacking a clear direction and characterized by instability.
Consulted economists suggest that the recent decline of foreign currencies may be linked to a temporary drop in demand or the psychological impact of official propaganda campaigns. However, they caution that there are no structural reasons to support a sustained recovery of the Cuban peso.
Inflation, the fiscal deficit, and the lack of trust in the regime's financial institutions continue to be the main drivers of devaluation.
In the early days of November, the regime intensified its rhetoric against the informal market, labeling it as an “instrument of economic destabilization.” However, experts remind us that this market arose precisely due to the state's inability to provide foreign currency through formal channels and the discrediting of the official exchange rate.
The experience of the last three years shows that, although the dollar and the euro may experience temporary declines, the market ultimately readjusts upward. Since 2022, the so-called "exchange rate overreaction"—speculative peaks followed by partial declines—has been a constant, without the Cuban peso recovering value in a sustainable manner.
Meanwhile, the promised "floating rate" scheme announced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero at the end of 2024 has yet to be implemented. And although the Cuban peso continues to lack credibility, the recent behavior of the currencies shows that the informal market is still sending confusing signals, reflecting the structural instability that the national economy is facing.
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