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The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal responded this Monday to the statements made by Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla, who days earlier accused the United States government of organizing a "comprehensive destabilization operation" to manipulate the exchange rate of the Cuban peso in the informal market.
In a series of messages posted on the social network X, Monreal denied the accusations made by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, asserting that the depreciation of the peso and the very existence of the informal currency market are not the result of a foreign conspiracy, but rather a direct consequence of the failure of the economic "ordering" promoted by the regime itself.
“Someone should explain to MINREX that the devaluation of the peso in the informal market, and the informal market itself, primarily reflect the failure of the design of the ordering system. Murillo can surely illustrate the issue for them by repeating what he said in October 2021,” wrote the economist in his first message, referring to the architect of the so-called ‘Ordering Task’, Marino Murillo Jorge.
The failure of "ordering" as a structural cause
The "ordering" was introduced by the Cuban government at the beginning of 2021 as a comprehensive reform to unify the currencies, eliminate subsidies, raise wages, and strengthen the national currency.
However, in practice, it led to a spiral of inflation, loss of purchasing power, and accelerated devaluation of the peso, forcing the population and the private sector to take refuge in the dollar, the euro, or the MLC.
For Monreal, the existence of the informal market—and its growing influence in the economy—is not an anomaly caused from the outside, but a direct consequence of distrust in the Cuban peso and failed monetary policies. In other words, the problem does not originate from Washington, but from Havana.
Hotel investments without foreign capital
In a second tweet, Monreal also debunked another claim implied in the chancellor's speech regarding the involvement of foreign investors in the hotel sector.
"They should also clarify to MINREX that hotels were not built with foreign investment. Marrero could explain what he said in 2018 about how 'the majority of weight is executed with limited own resources.' There has been no official statement since then modifying that," he emphasized.
The economist referred to statements made by the then Minister of Tourism, Manuel Marrero Cruz, who acknowledged that most hotel investments in Cuba are financed with state funds, not foreign capital.
In the image that accompanied the tweet, Monreal quoted an official excerpt from the Cuban tourism development plan, which stated that "the majority of the implementation is carried out with limited domestic resources, but foreign investment is also prioritized."
That phrase, included in official press reports, confirms that the hotel expansion—comprising dozens of five-star hotels in Havana and Varadero—has relied on internal resources amidst a context of crisis and widespread scarcity.
Strategic errors in energy investment
In a third message, Monreal broadened his criticism by pointing out another blind spot in the government's discourse: the lack of investment in electric energy.
"Igualmente deberían explicar al MINREX que no se invirtió en termoeléctricas no por una cuestión de falta de atractivo para posibles inversores extranjeros, sino por una decisión política de no invertir en nuevas termoeléctricas (Fidel Castro, December 21, 2005)," he recalled.
In doing so, the economist referred to a political decision sustained over decades that has left the country with an obsolete electrical system reliant on emergency repairs, one of the main causes of the blackouts affecting the entire island.
Between the official narrative and economic reality
Monreal's statements contrast with Rodríguez Parrilla's narrative, which attributes inflation, the loss of value of the peso, and the chaos of the informal market to an "economic war" orchestrated by Washington.
For the economist, this explanation ignores the real causes: the failed design of the Cuban economic model, the inefficiency of the state, and the political decisions that have prioritized hotels over thermoelectric plants, propaganda over production, and control over economic freedom.
The exchange between the two illustrates the growing gap between the official narrative and the technical assessment of Cuban economists themselves. While the regime insists on blaming the embargo and "speculative manipulation," voices like Monreal's point out that the root of the crisis lies at home.
More than launching accusations and conspiratorial speeches, the Cuban government should focus on establishing a realistic exchange rate and effective monetary policy. Because without control or productive backing, the peso doesn't need external enemies: it collapses on its own.
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