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The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal has again engaged in the public debate regarding the currency crisis and the depreciation of the Cuban peso, warning that the root of the problem lies not in an alleged manipulation of the informal market, but in the structural incapacity of the State to support its own currency.
In a thread posted this Tuesday on the social network X, Monreal pointed out that the current discussion about the informal exchange rate "could be useful" if it focused on the real factors that determine it: the crisis of productive supply and the state's abdication of its constitutional duty to defend the value of the peso.
"The most relevant issue is the structural crisis of productive supply, and with the failure of the 'ordering', the State neglected its essential function of defending the Cuban peso," the economist stated, clearly referring to the economic plan launched in 2021 by the government to unify the currency and strengthen the economy, which ended up generating inflation and a massive loss of purchasing power.
A crisis that doesn't dissipate
Monreal warned that, even if the current controversy regarding alleged "manipulation" of the exchange rate ceases —an accusation recently reiterated by Chancellor Bruno Rodríguez Parilla— the underlying problem will persist, as it is a structural economic crisis that cannot be resolved within the existing model.
"When the current recurring phase regarding the 'manipulation' of the informal exchange rate of the Cuban peso subsides, a structural economic crisis will still be present that is not resolved within the existing institutional framework," he wrote.
The economist recalled that the so-called ‘Tarea Ordenamiento’ led to a poorly managed transition: it went from monetary and exchange unification to a de facto dollarization, in an “outdated” exchange regime that exacerbated speculation and turned the daily exchange rate of the peso into a “casino game,” rather than a reflection of the real economy.
Direct criticism of the Central Bank
In the last message of the thread, Monreal was even more emphatic in directly holding the Central Bank of Cuba (BCC) responsible, as it is the institution constitutionally tasked with ensuring the stability of the currency.
"The Central Bank of Cuba, tangled up in an insignificant 'banking process', by not actively defending the national peso has incurred a dereliction of duty that approaches unconstitutionality," he asserted, citing Article 25 of the Constitution, which mandates the BCC to "preserve the value of the national currency."
A call to recognize the real problem
Monreal's words once again bring to the table a diagnosis that contrasts with the official narrative: the devaluation of the peso and the rise of the informal market are not the result of external maneuvers, but rather the internal consequence of an unproductive model, a failed reform, and the absence of an effective monetary policy.
While the regime insists on denouncing "speculative" campaigns from abroad, the economist points out that the deterioration of the peso is, above all, a symptom of the collapse of the Cuban economic order and of a state that — as he asserts — "has ceased to fulfill its essential function."
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