The Cuban regime fears that a fall of Maduro will accelerate its own economic crisis

The Cuban regime is following with concern –and much anxiety– the escalating military pressure from the United States on Venezuela and the strong stance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio towards the dictator Nicolás Maduro, a combination that, according to experts, could trigger a new economic blow for Havana.

According to a report from the agency EFE, the alarm of the Cuban regime focuses on the possible political and economic repercussions of a change in power in Caracas, its main energy and financial ally.

Analysts consulted by the agency indicated that the loss of Venezuelan support would represent a severe blow to the weakened Cuban economy.

The former diplomat and analyst Carlos Alzugaray indicated that in Havana “there is consternation” over the possibility of a conflict between the United States and Venezuela that could “spill over to Cuba”, where the internal situation is already described as a “policrisis” characterized by inflation, scarcity, and prolonged power outages.

For his part, the Cuban-American Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, explained to EFE that the regime perceives "the risk of losing its main ally and oil subsidies" just as it faces a collapsing economy.

Cuba currently receives about 32,000 barrels daily from Venezuela, close to a quarter of its energy needs.

Herrero added that without this supply, the island would be forced to turn to more expensive sources like Mexico or Russia, which would worsen inflation, shortages, and social unrest.

Moreover, he warned that the loss of Caracas as a partner would force Havana to become more dependent on Moscow and Beijing in a context of increasing rivalry with Washington.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez recently described the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean as "madness" and a "violation of international law", stating that Washington's strategy serves "warrior objectives" that will only bring "violence and instability."

Alzugaray, however, believes that the eventual fall of chavismo would not necessarily mean the end of the Cuban regime.

"Cuba has shown great resilience. It is possible that it will manage to withstand, although the current challenges are much more severe than in the past," he stated.

Both experts agreed that the Cuban economy is in a state of extreme fragility, and that the withdrawal of Venezuelan support could accelerate its structural deterioration, with direct effects on energy, transportation, and basic services.