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“There will be no more oil or money for Cuba. Nothing!”, wrote U.S. President Donald Trump on his social media platform Truth Social, in a message that made it clear that Washington aims to suffocate the regime following the collapse of chavismo and the end of Venezuelan support.
Trump even recommended to Havana to "reach an agreement before it is too late," which many interpret as an unprecedented ultimatum.
But what exactly does Trump mean when he talks about "money"? The constitutional lawyer and political analyst Rafael Peñalver explained it clearly in an interview with France 24.
It's not just about the oil that has come from Venezuela for years, but also the constant flow of remittances sent by Cubans abroad to their families on the island.
"It is a very delicate issue from a moral and familial perspective," Peñalver stated. Sending money to a mother, a child, or a brother in Cuba is, for many emigrants, an act of love and survival.
But at the same time, he warned, a significant portion of that money ends up in the hands of the State, supporting a repressive apparatus that keeps the regime in power. "It is a very difficult situation that Cubans are facing," he emphasized.
The potential definitive interruption of Venezuelan oil exacerbates that situation even further. According to Peñalver, the Cuban system has no room for maneuver. "Castroism is in its final days," he asserted, describing a country unable to sustain its population, with a collapsed healthcare system, a crumbling economy, and increasingly visible repression. In his view, the only factor that has allowed the government to persist has been repressive control, bolstered for years by the energy subsidy from Caracas.
Miguel Díaz-Canel, the designated Cuban leader, responded to Trump with a speech of resistance, accusing the United States of "rage" and reaffirming that "no one dictates what we do," while once again blaming the embargo for the hardships faced by the island.
The chancellor Bruno Rodríguez denied that Cuba has charged Venezuela for security services and spoke of "blackmail" and "military coercion."
However, beyond the official slogans, the nervousness is evident. The loss of its main external ally and the direct threat from Washington place the Cuban government in an unprecedented vulnerability, just as tourism is collapsing and the social crisis deepens.
For Peñalver, the way out does not lie in new agreements that open the door to further external exploitation, but rather in what he describes as "patriotism," which is the call for a national dialogue among Cubans that leads to a genuine transition towards freedom, democracy, and the release of political prisoners. Otherwise, he warns, the accumulated pressure will eventually explode.
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