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The American prediction markets platform Kalshi has recently shown an increase in the likelihood that Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave power before 2027.
According to a published estimate, the market "World leaders out before 2027?" shows for Díaz-Canel prices equivalent to a "Yes" of 48% and a "No" of 53%, with a traded volume of around 2.7 million dollars.
Kalshi is a regulated platform in the United States where users buy and sell contracts linked to real-world events; in this system, the price (in cents) serves as a measure of the collective expectation regarding whether the event will occur or not.
Therefore, it is not a survey or a traditional betting house, but rather a financial market whose indicator changes over time and can be observed in an evolution chart.
Within that international market, Díaz-Canel would be approaching the leaders with the highest estimated likelihood of leaving power, and a comparison is made to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other leaders included in the list (for example, Viktor Orbán).
The resurgence of interest in that market is linked to the regional context; following the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro, international attention has turned to the Caribbean, and particularly to Cuba.
In parallel, Díaz-Canel —from his rise within the UJC and the PCC to his presidency in 2018 and subsequent consolidation as the first secretary of the Party in 2021— has fostered an internal environment characterized by economic crisis, blackouts, shortages, repression of protests, and mass exodus.
This Friday, the leader warned that Cuba "will not make any political concessions" in response to the pressures from the United States government, following recent statements by President Donald Trump, who advised the Havana regime to "make a deal before it's too late."
During a speech delivered at the Anti-Imperialist Tribune in the Cuban capital, Díaz-Canel asserted that if Cuba were to be attacked, it would "fight with the same fierceness that generations of brave Cuban fighters handed down, from the wars for independence in the 19th century, to the Sierra Maestra, the underground movement, and Africa in the 20th century, up to Caracas in the 21st century."
In his speech, he harshly criticized Washington, accusing President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio of leading a policy of regional aggression.
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