Without Maduro and with Trump applying pressure: Who is still helping Cuba with oil?

Cuba is facing an unprecedented energy crisis. Following the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in early January, the island lost its main oil supplier.

Today, with blackouts in many areas exceeding 20 hours a day, the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel survives thanks to two allies: Mexico and Russia.

According to estimates from the Energy Institute at the University of Texas, Cuba requires about 110,000 barrels of crude oil per day, but it only produces around 40,000 from its wells. The remaining 70,000 barrels must be imported, although the current flow does not even meet half of that figure.

Mexico has become the main support for the regime, but no Mexican oil has reached Cuba since early January.

During the administration of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, shipments from the state-owned company Pemex increased significantly, and his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, has maintained an ambiguous stance: she does not confirm the continuation of the shipments, but she asserts that she will continue to send "humanitarian aid." Washington interprets that aid as an energy lifeline.

For its part, Russia maintains a much smaller supply—around 5,000 to 6,000 barrels per day—and technical assistance to Cuban refineries, which is insufficient to stabilize the electrical system.

On January 29, President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorizing the imposition of tariffs on goods from countries that sell or donate oil to Cuba, in a clear attempt to cut off the supply routes that still sustain the regime.

The measure increases pressure on Mexico just as the T-MEC Treaty with the United States and Canada is being reviewed.

Meanwhile, the Cuban government keeps import figures and contracts with its allies a secret. Previous investigations have revealed that Havana resold foreign crude oil to China to obtain foreign currency, even amid internal blackouts.

Without Maduro, with Trump tightening the noose and Mexico in the sights, Cuba faces a scenario of total energy suffocation.

The country operates in darkness, its survival hanging by a thread of a few ships and the discretion of governments increasingly monitored by Washington.