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The Cuban economist Pedro Monreal reacted on social media this Thursday to the recent appearance of Miguel Díaz-Canel, pointing out that the measures announced by the government indicate a new cycle of austerity and a “contingency plan” that dangerously resembles the worst moments of the Special Period.
In an analysis published on , Monreal identified three aspects that he finds particularly noteworthy following the president's presentation:
The approval of a new austerity package by the Council of Ministers.
The apparent official expectation of achieving a nearby import of fuels.
The persistence of an "outdated" vision on how to reform centralized planning.
An energy plan that revives the "zero option."
Monreal referred to the directives announced by the Government to address the "acute fuel shortage," which would be released within a week.
According to the economist, these measures reflect "updated" versions of the so-called "zero option," an extreme scheme of rationing and survival that was discussed in the 1990s but was never fully implemented.
"The contingency plan is option zero under another name," he warned.
Lack of diplomatic urgency despite the extreme crisis
Another point highlighted by Monreal is what he interprets as a lack of urgency in diplomatic relations with the United States, despite the government itself acknowledging a severe shortage of fuel.
Official statements, as interpreted, suggest that Havana may be betting on securing alternative suppliers in the short term, rather than prioritizing direct negotiations with Washington regarding the oil flow.
"A possible reading would be the hope of being able to secure fuel suppliers in the short term," he wrote.
Economic reforms anchored in the past
Although he made it clear that this is not the most urgent issue at the moment, Monreal also questioned the official insistence on correcting the flaws of centralized planning through approaches that hark back to Soviet models from sixty years ago.
In particular, he pointed out that the regime's proposals evoke the Liberman-Kosygin reform model, promoted in the USSR in the mid-1960s, which is widely considered to be outdated.
"They insist on addressing the shortcomings of centralized planning with outdated notions," he pointed out.
"Journeys Towards the Degradation of Human Metabolism"
Monreal had already warned a day earlier, in a message posted on X, that the announced "contingency plan" could signify a new stage of deep social deterioration.
"It is worth considering that these would be journeys from the thermodynamic fracture of the economic system towards the impoverishment of human metabolism," he wrote, in one of his most forceful expressions.
In another post, he warned that this new plan would worsen the crisis inherited from the failure of the economic "ordering" and could lead to a resurgence of food insecurity due to the incompetence of the regime's agricultural policy.
"They announced the upcoming contingency plan, worsening the inherited contingency from the failure of the regulation," he denounced.
A bleak outlook for the population
The economist's statements reflect an increasing skepticism among experts regarding the Cuban government's ability to tackle the energy and economic crisis the country is facing.
For Monreal, the official discourse does not provide structural solutions, but rather the repetition of failed schemes that would lead only to more austerity, scarcity, and a deterioration of living conditions.
While the regime announces new directives, Cubans are facing a reality marked by prolonged power outages, a lack of fuel, inflation, and an increasingly severe food crisis.
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