The US dollar surpassed the barrier of 500 Cuban pesos for the first time in the informal market, a milestone that confirms the ongoing trend of depreciation of the peso and deepens the currency crisis on the island.
The data was recorded by the representative rate of the informal market prepared by the independent media elTOQUE, which monitors the behavior of currencies outside the official market in real time.
"The US dollar surpassed the symbolic mark of 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market on February 10, 2026, at 1:38 p.m. (Cuba time)," emphasized the independent platform.
Exchange Rate Evolution
Although the currency surpassed 500 CUP during the day, by the time this information was reported, the dollar was trading at 499.50 Cuban pesos, a fluctuation that reflects the dynamic and changing nature of the informal market, where values can rise and fall within a matter of hours.
The new record occurs in a context of energy collapse, currency shortages, and deep structural imbalances in the Cuban economy, with direct impacts on production, transportation, and the supply of basic goods.
Moreover, crossing the threshold of 500 pesos is not viewed as an isolated incident, but rather as part of a trajectory that indicates a persistent deterioration of the value of the Cuban peso, in the absence of structural reforms and a credible macroeconomic stabilization plan.
"The crossing of the threshold of 500 CUP does not come as a speculative episode," the note stated, and emphasized: "the behavior of the informal market in the early weeks of the year has been relatively moderate, despite the seriousness of the macroeconomic scenario."
Similarly, elTOQUE emphasized that "the forecasting models of the observatory had already predicted that the dollar would surpass that barrier during February, with a central estimated value of 530 CUP per 1 USD, although within a range of high uncertainty that spans from 475 to 590 CUP."
To illustrate that variation, at 9:28 a.m. in Cuba, the exchange rate of the dollar published by elTOQUE placed the U.S. currency at 495 Cuban pesos.
In 2025, most Cubans believed that the price of the dollar would skyrocket in the informal market and reach 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) before the year ended. However, the legendary barrier was breached months later.
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