The US dollar has surpassed the barrier of 500 Cuban pesos in the informal market for the first time, a milestone that confirms the ongoing trend of peso depreciation and exacerbates the currency crisis on the island.
The data was recorded by the representative rate of the informal market compiled by the independent outlet elTOQUE, which monitors the behavior of currencies in real-time outside the official market.
"The US dollar exceeded the symbolic mark of 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) in the informal market on February 10, 2026, at 1:38 p.m. (Cuba time)," emphasized the independent platform.
Although the currency exceeded 500 CUP during the day, by the time this information was closed, the dollar was trading at 499.50 Cuban pesos, a variation that reflects the dynamic and ever-changing nature of the informal market, where values can rise and fall within hours.
Exchange Rate Evolution
The new record occurs in a context of energy collapse, foreign currency shortages, and profound structural imbalances in the Cuban economy, with direct impacts on production, transportation, and the supply of essential goods.
Moreover, crossing the threshold of 500 pesos is not viewed as an isolated incident, but rather as part of a trajectory that indicates a persistent deterioration in the value of the Cuban peso, in the absence of structural reforms and a credible macroeconomic stabilization plan.
"The crossing of the threshold of 500 CUP does not come as a speculative episode," the note indicated, emphasizing: "the behavior of the informal market in the first weeks of the year has been relatively moderate, despite the severity of the macroeconomic scenario."
Similarly, elTOQUE emphasized that "the forecast models from the observatory had already anticipated that the dollar would exceed that barrier during February, with a central estimated value of 530 CUP per 1 USD, although within a range of high uncertainty that goes from 475 to 590 CUP."
To illustrate this variation, at 9:28 a.m. in Cuba, the exchange rate of the dollar published by elTOQUE placed the U.S. currency at 495 Cuban pesos.
In 2025, most Cubans believed that the price of the dollar would soar in the informal market and reach 500 Cuban pesos (CUP) before the year came to an end. However, that legendary threshold was crossed just months later.
Filed under: