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The Cuban economist Emilio Morales, vice president of the think tank Cuba Siglo 21, believes that the Cuban regime is in its terminal phase and has set a date for its downfall.
In an interview granted to CubaNet, the analyst stated, "I don't think it will last until summer"; and went further to assert: "We are in the final stage of the regime."
His statements come amid a visible worsening of the crisis on the Island, following the official announcement of a "contingency plan" in response to the severe fuel shortages.
The measure includes cuts in all productive sectors, partial suspension of services, and greater restrictions for the population.
A paralyzed country
Morales presents a devastating economic and structural diagnosis.
According to the explanation, Cuba is facing the "collapse of the energy matrix," the deterioration of the healthcare system, the breakdown of transportation, and the paralysis of the productive sector.
“A country in darkness cannot produce, and even less so, cannot export. Therefore, it cannot generate income. Thus, the economy is bankrupt. The country is practically paralyzed”, he argued.
In recent days, there have been reports of cashless ATMs, restricted sale of fuel, limitations in medical services, and cancellations of international flights due to a lack of fuel for airplanes.
The energy crisis has even impacted tourism, one of the few sectors that still brought in foreign currency.
Morales recalled that the company Kpler estimated in early February that Cuba had only about 15 to 20 days of oil reserves for consumption and electricity generation.
In his opinion, the government's margin for maneuver is minimal.
"Tourism has just collapsed," he noted, mentioning that several airlines have suspended operations to the island and that the main Canadian airline announced it will not fly to Cuba until May. Canada is the largest source of tourists to the country.
Health crisis and social exhaustion
The economist added an epidemiological component to his analysis. From an epidemiological standpoint, it is a disaster, as there are more than nine viruses circulating.
But beyond economic and health indicators, Morales believes that the regime has lost something that sustained its control for decades: the informational hegemony and the ability to shape the public narrative.
“The Cuban population is now completely dissenting”, he stated.
According to him, Cubans have stopped consuming the official media and are getting their information from independent sources.
"That hegemonic narrative that the Communist Party of Cuba had about Cubans is over. They have already lost that war. Therefore, the Cuban government is currently in a position of great weakness," he asserted
In his view, this wear and tear is not only social but also ideological and institutional.
"This has also led the PCC to lose its ideological power over the population and its ability to mobilize. This rift can also be observed within the Armed Forces themselves," he noted.
Unpayable debt and external isolation
On the international stage, Morales emphasizes the weight of an external debt amounting to 46 billion dollars, which they "will not pay because they cannot pay."
It should also be noted that Havana has lost political influence in Latin America, following the fall of several leftist governments and the rise of administrations that are less aligned with Castroism.
This adds up to a radical shift in the foreign policy of the United States, which has become much tougher toward authoritarian governments in the hemisphere.
According to his interpretation, the Cuban government lacks leverage for negotiation and its options are "limited."
"What does the Cuban government have to offer in a negotiation? Absolutely nothing. The only thing it has to offer is for the Castro family to leave the country and allow for a transition. That is the only feasible scenario at this moment."
Morales also mentions pending legal proceedings in the United States against figures linked to Cuban power, and recent statements from former Venezuelan intelligence chief Hugo “El Pollo” Carvajal, who claimed that the strategy to flood the United States with drugs was devised in Havana.
GAESA and the Struggle for Economic Power
One of the most sensitive points of his analysis is the business conglomerate GAESA, which controls extensive sectors of the Cuban economy and which, in Morales' view, "has plundered all the country's wealth."
He added that, although it formally belongs to the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR), in practice it operates as "a family conglomerate controlled by the Castro family and a few oligarchs close to them."
Morales argues that not all military leaders would be involved in the corruption associated with the business group, which - in his view - could create a different scenario in the event of a new wave of protests similar to those of July 11, 2021.
"The conditions are in place," he emphasized. "It is very highly likely that the government will fall. It would have to be something out of the ordinary for it not to happen," he reiterated.
Are there lifelines for Havana?
In light of the possibility that Mexico may resume oil shipments to Cuba despite U.S. sanctions, Morales expressed skepticism.
It also ruled out a rescue by Russia or China. He recalled that Russian entrepreneurs tried to promote legal reforms to invest in Cuba, but the government refused to introduce structural changes.
"The Russians already consider the Cuban issue lost," he noted.
Regarding information published in the Spanish press about alleged negotiations by Alejandro Castro Espín with U.S. agents, Morales questioned the specific account, although he maintained that contacts do exist.
"What I can tell you is that yes, negotiations are taking place. Who is negotiating? I don't know. That’s not relevant right now (...) but it is a sign that runs counter to the rhetoric being expressed by President Díaz-Canel," he stated.
"I don't think it will last until summer; a miracle would have to happen, and there are no miracles with them," said the economist about the regime.
In his view, the combination of energy collapse, economic bankruptcy, loss of external support, ideological wear, and internal fractures creates a critical scenario.
“It could be before or in the summer, but what I am sure of is that it will be this year”, he concluded.
Morales' words do not represent an isolated prediction, but rather reflect a growing perception both within and outside the Island: that the Cuban model is facing a profound structural crisis, the outcome of which could mark a historic turning point.
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