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The energy crisis in Cuba is approaching a breaking point. This warning does not come from a political opponent or a makeshift analyst, but from Jorge Piñón, a researcher at the Energy Institute of the University of Texas at Austin, with three decades of experience in major oil companies such as Shell, Amoco Oil, and BP.
“The situation in Cuba is extremely critical”, stated the expert straightforwardly in a recent interview granted to the Spanish newspaper El País.
His diagnosis is based on concrete figures, monitoring of shipments, and decades of study of the Cuban energy sector.
Piñón (Cárdenas, 79 years old) has monitored the latest vessels carrying hydrocarbons that arrived on the island.
The most recent was the Ocean Mariner, which transported 85,000 barrels of crude oil from Mexico and docked in Havana on January 9. Since then, no significant new shipments have arrived.
According to the explanation, President Donald Trump's threat to impose consequences on countries that supply oil to Cuba has had an immediate effect: shipments have stopped, and the island's structural vulnerability has been exposed.
“If by mid-March we don't see a tanker on the horizon, Cuba will have reached zero hour,” he declared.
He added that Cuba does not have strategic reserves and has never been able to have them.
"He has always lived day by day when it comes to oil, and moreover, he lacks the storage capacity to establish these strategic reserves," he warned.
A structural deficit
Cuba needs around 100,000 barrels of oil daily to sustain its basic electricity services and fuel supply.
National production barely covers about 40,000 barrels. The rest has depended, in recent years, on shipments from Venezuela, Mexico, and Russia.
Washington's intervention in Caracas on January 3rd—according to Piñón's analysis—accelerated the closure of those supply routes. The reduction or halt of shipments from Venezuela and Mexico has left the island with virtually no room for maneuver.
Mexico played a key role. Pemex acknowledged to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it was sending Cuba about 17,200 barrels of crude oil daily. But it was not just any oil.
"Mexico was sending its best crude oil to Cuba, which is Olmeca and Istmo. This surprised us because those two medium and light crudes that Pemex has are very important. Mexico was not exporting Maya crude because Cuba's refineries are outdated and do not have the conversion or processing capacity for the heavier Maya," explained the expert.
The choice of light and medium crude oils facilitated refining in outdated Cuban facilities with limited conversion capacity. Without these supplies, electricity generation and the availability of liquid fuels are immediately affected.
Paralyzed thermoelectric plants and water at risk
The impact is not abstract. Piñón points out that "60% of the thermal power plants in the country are not operating," mainly due to a lack of maintenance and fuel.
The scarcity of hydrocarbons affects not only mobility and transportation but also the essential electricity generation needed to pump and distribute drinking water.
In a country where prolonged blackouts are already part of the routine, the complete lack of fuel exacerbates the social crisis even further.
"The Cuban electrical system, unfortunately, cannot be resolved in the short term. It is a solution that will take years. They are, by the way, trying to increase renewable energies, particularly solar energy, but they are small solar parks that only operate when the sun is shining," he detailed.
Renewable projects, although necessary, are still nascent and lack the capital required to structurally transform the country's energy matrix.
A historical dependency
For Piñón, the current situation is not solely the result of recent sanctions, but rather a historical dependence on ideological allies with oil production capacity.
"With Chávez, from 2007 to 2015, Cuba was receiving almost 100,000 barrels daily," he recalled.
First it was the Soviet Union; then, Venezuela. When those supports diminished, the fragility of the model was laid bare.
The researcher argues that the Cuban government had opportunities to reform its economic and energy structure, but did not do so.
"Cuba has been unwilling to let go of its centralized economic model and is the only country still operating under a system from the days of Stalin. Aside from North Korea, I am not aware of any other country that has such a closed economic system and poor management," he stated.
"Someone has to give in."
Piñón left Cuba in 1960, at the age of 14, during Operation Peter Pan. Since then, he has built his career in the United States, although he has visited the island several times. Today, he watches with concern the accelerated deterioration of the energy system and its social consequences.
Defines the current situation as "painful" and warns that the conditions for Cubans on the island will become increasingly difficult if no change occurs.
“Some side has to give”, he insisted in reference to the necessary political dialogue between Havana and Washington.
And he added, "What is happening is tough for everyone, whether they are Cubans here or Cubans there."
If a tanker does not arrive in the coming weeks, the country could face not only more severe blackouts but also an almost total paralysis of essential services.
According to the expert, Cuba's energy "zero hour" would be just around the corner.
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