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The recent U.S. military operation in Venezuela — which culminated in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro — has been highlighted by the administration of President Donald Trump as an implicit warning to the Cuban regime as part of a broader hemispheric strategy aimed at effecting regime change on the island before the end of the year.
According to U.S. sources consulted by the newspaper The Wall Street Journal, following the successful operation in Caracas, the White House believes that the Cuban economy is in a critical situation after losing the strategic support of Venezuela.
This vulnerability, combined with ongoing sanctions and economic pressure, has led Washington to intensify its approach towards Havana, seeking interlocutors within the Cuban government who may be willing to negotiate an agreement that would lead to the exit of the communist regime.
The report clearly states that, although there is no detailed and public plan to end the Cuban government that has been in power for almost seven decades, high-ranking U.S. officials regard the operation in Venezuela as a “model” and a warning for the leadership in Havana.
The capture of Maduro and the subsequent concessions from his allies would be seen by Washington as examples of how a political transition could also unfold in Cuba if internal and external pressures increase.
Sources cited by the newspaper indicate that there have been meetings with Cuban exiles and civic groups both in Miami and Washington aimed at identifying figures within the Cuban regime who “see the writing on the wall” and can facilitate a transition before the end of 2026.
The U.S. strategy also includes strengthening economic sanctions, blocking key supplies such as oil—previously sourced from Venezuela—and implementing restrictions aimed at international support networks that used to keep the Cuban economy afloat. All of this occurs within a context where the island is facing fuel shortages, blackouts, and a profound economic crisis that, according to analysts, could exacerbate the regime's fragility.
The Trump administration has explicitly linked the situation in Cuba with events in Venezuela, suggesting that if the fall of the Venezuelan leader was possible, the situation on the Caribbean island could also evolve towards a broader and deeper transition before the year ends.
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