The analyst Sebastián Arcos, interim director of the Institute of Cuban Studies at Florida International University, described Miguel Díaz-Canel's intervention on March 13 as a "carefully choreographed theater" and noted that what was truly revealing was not just what was said, but the images and the power dynamics that were exposed before the cameras of Cuban television.
The Cuban leader appeared before the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Cuba and confirmed that Havana and Washington are maintaining active conversations. His speech marked a radical shift from the stance that his own officials had held for weeks.
He acknowledged that there are indeed ongoing discussions between the United States and Cuba. Until recently, regime officials were insisting that there were no conversations happening. So, either they are not communicating with each other, or there was simply a strategy to deny to the people of Cuba that the regime was actually negotiating, Arcos stated.
The most explosive piece of information from the analysis was the presence of Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro —grandson of Raúl Castro, known as "the Crab," lieutenant colonel of MININT— at the Political Bureau meeting, despite not being a member of that body. It was an unmistakable sign of who holds real power in Cuba.
His presence at the PCC meeting was seen as that of Raúl's eyes and ears: "He is there to remind Díaz-Canel who is in charge. And he will immediately report back to his grandfather on what happened in that meeting. He is not a member of the Political Bureau, he cannot be, he shouldn't be sitting in that meeting. Yet, there he is," Arcos pointed out.
Díaz-Canel's own phrase —that the negotiations are "led by the Army General and historic leader of our revolution, Raúl Castro, and myself"— was interpreted by the analyst as an unintentional definition of real power.
"The true power in Cuba is in the hands of Raúl Castro, not the president of the republic and first secretary of the party. In the end, it is Raúl Castro who commands, retired and without a position," he said. In this regard, it is important to highlight that Raúl is a nonagenarian but still holds the title of Army General in Cuba.
The context that compelled the regime to admit its negotiations with the United States is multifaceted.
Havana had been experiencing at least seven consecutive days of protests with pot-banging due to power outages lasting up to 21 hours daily, triggered by a malfunction at the Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric power plant, which left more than six million people without electricity.
Moreover, President Trump had stated at the "Shield of the Americas" summit in Miami that Cuba wants to negotiate with Marco Rubio and his administration, making the regime's denial unsustainable.
The concessions announced this Friday were three: the release of 51 prisoners following dialogue with the Vatican —without classifying them as political prisoners—, the authorization for the FBI to investigate the incident involving the boat from Florida, and the opening to investments from the Cuban-American diaspora.
Arcos described them as "minimal" and "insignificant". Cuba has over 1,200 recognized political prisoners. Justicia 11J reported at least 760 active as of March 12. Venezuela released 500 in its own negotiations, ten times more.
Regarding the boat incident, Arcos was emphatic: "From the very beginning, I have been saying that this incident shows all the signs of being a operation prepared by Cuban intelligence."
He pointed out that the regime included on its list of expeditioners a person who was at that time in Miami, which would imply that the Cuban government had the list in advance. The inconsistencies in the official Cuban version of the incident point in the same direction.
Arcos highlights that the regime's strategy is to buy time. While negotiating with the United States, Díaz-Canel returns to military rhetoric, seeking to extend discussions as long as possible until the midterm elections in the U.S. in November, or even until President Trump concludes his term in three years.
"That is their fundamental objective," the analyst stated.
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