The economic collapse of Cuba has ceased to be a temporary crisis and has solidified into a structural problem that cannot be solved with isolated gestures. This was warned by former U.S. Congressman Joe García, who emphasized in an interview with CiberCuba that, without real guarantees and profound reforms, neither the diaspora nor international banking will be willing to invest in the island.
His diagnosis is clear: Cuba is facing a functional bankruptcy. "If the Americans ease their grip on Cuba, it won't stop... precisely because it is in bankruptcy," he stated.
"The reality is that the diaspora will demand as many guarantees, if not more, than what American investors requested," García stated, dismantling the idea that Cuban capital abroad would automatically come to the rescue of the national economy.
One of the key factors behind this distrust is the recent actions of the Cuban financial system. According to García, investors have been directly affected: “Less than six months ago, all their bank accounts were closed and all their dollar deposits were taken away.” This type of measure, he emphasizes, destroys any minimal foundation of confidence needed to attract capital.
"In Cuba, everything is left to do... there is devastation on every corner," he noted, describing a paralyzed economy that, paradoxically, also represents an opportunity for reconstruction if the right conditions were in place.
However, the problem is not limited to the U.S. embargo. While García acknowledges it as a relevant factor — "it's an essential problem," he conceded — he insists that it is not enough to explain the crisis or to resolve it. Even in a hypothetical scenario of an immediate lifting of the embargo, the country would still struggle to take off if institutional trust is not restored, he said.
In this regard, he pointed out that access to international financing remains blocked. Cuba needs to open up to organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, as well as to international banks and infrastructure investors. Without that structural support, recovery becomes unfeasible.
The analysis also points to the political factor. García criticized the tendency of some sectors to avoid negotiating with those who truly hold power on the island. “We want to negotiate a solution… but we don’t want to negotiate with the one who has power,” he noted, questioning the lack of realism in certain proposals.
Furthermore, he dismissed any scenario of external intervention: “I cannot impose on the Americans that their children... go die in Cuba,” he stated, referring to calls for a military solution, which he deemed unfeasible.
The volatility of U.S. politics adds another layer of uncertainty. “Donald Trump… tomorrow he could change and announce that he doesn't care about Cuba,” he warned, emphasizing the fragility of any strategy that relies on decisions made in Washington.
Against this backdrop, García emphasized that the only viable solution lies in internal decisions in Havana. In his view, the Cuban regime must provide clear guarantees, starting with its own population. “First to the people of Cuba: how are we going to get out of this hole?” he stated.
He also pointed out the need for credible signals, both economic and political. Neither the international community nor the diaspora will trust unbacked promises. “No one asks for investment because they want to… it’s because they need something,” he said, making it clear that the interest in attracting capital is driven by the urgency of the crisis.
García emphasizes that the moment is crucial and, in his opinion, requires clear rules, asset protection, and verifiable guarantees. Only then, he adds, could investment be activated and access to international financing be reopened. Otherwise, he insists, even lifting the embargo will not prevent the prolongation of an insolvent economy and a society trapped in stagnation.
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